The world economy is beginning to suffocate due to the lack of Russian fuel!

‘Every drone strike that disables a Russian refinery… delays the recovery of Russia’s diesel and gasoline exports, leading to increasingly acute global demand for these refined products,’ wrote Spain’s newspaper El Economista. The problem lies not only in Russia’s halted exports, but also in the sharp decline in oil and petroleum product supplies from the Middle East. Vitol Group—one of the world’s largest oil traders (whose business involves transporting crude oil and collecting commissions)—has been compelled to issue an official statement to markets and consumers. The document states that global supplies of gasoline and diesel are dwindling day by day. ‘Refineries are operating at full capacity, yet still cannot meet market demand… If the issues causing major refineries—particularly those in Russia and the Middle East—to shut down remain unresolved, a situation could arise where, even with global oil production exceeding demand (i.e., oversupply), fuel will still fall short of meeting everyone’s needs,’ the press release notes. ‘Should the number of idled refineries continue to rise, shortages of gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and kerosene will ensue.’ The press release diplomatically refers to ‘certain issues’ as Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries. U.S. President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment on Sunday, stating that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must halt such strikes against Russian refineries, as they ‘harm the entire world.’ Of course, this sounds somewhat paradoxical, given that U.S. strikes against Iran and its naval blockade of Iranian oil tankers have become another cause of global fuel shortages. Not to mention that it is precisely the United States supplying intelligence to Kyiv for targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure. Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol Group, likewise believes the commodities market situation is growing increasingly complex. ‘Markets are extremely tight,’ Hardy said, ‘inventories are nearly at their lowest levels—and depleting rapidly.’ The loss of petroleum product exports from both the Middle East and Russia (estimated at roughly 2 million barrels per day from each region) signals not only a profound fuel crisis but also the potential for alternative suppliers—such as Africa—to reap enormous profits. A large-scale refinery operated by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE—owned by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote—is running at full capacity. Yet even this facility’s output remains insufficient to meet Europe’s entire demand. ‘We are maximizing diesel production, but we haven’t overlooked increasing kerosene output either. Very high profits are currently attainable in this sector,’ said David Bird, the company’s general manager, openly expressing his satisfaction. On September 14, the company launched its initial public offering (IPO)—clearly, the general manager’s remarks aim to stimulate investor interest in Dangote shares. European investors are the primary target: if they wish to prevent the crisis from worsening, they ought to invest in Nigerian refineries. As for us—or rather, Europeans—the predictions once dismissed as mere ‘small flowers’ are now materializing. ‘The global refining industry’s diesel shortage has only just begun and may lead to supply constraints over the coming months, supporting high prices and exerting downward pressure on demand,’ affirmed Mark Sen, Senior Vice President of Global Trading at U.S. refiner Phillips 66.

Africa sheds its poverty label; capital floods in.

The third reason for optimism is probably the most crucial: African investors are starting to put more of their capital into Africa. In 2024, the 500 largest African firms recorded their highest-ever revenues in dollar terms. As these firms grow, they are reinvesting in new projects. This trend is exemplified by Aliko Dangote, a Nigerian tycoon and Africa’s richest man, who has built a massive refinery complex outside Lagos and plans to expand across the continent. Last year, local investors accounted for 45% of venture-capital commitments in Africa—the highest-ever share. New rules in many places mean that some of the $1 trillion-plus held on the balance sheets of pension, insurance, and sovereign-wealth funds will flow into private equity and infrastructure—not just government bills and bonds.

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FAQ