Why has Tesco widened its profit guidance for 2026/27, and what specific external factor did it cite?

Tesco widened its profit guidance for 2026/27 — forecasting adjusted operating profit of between £3.0 billion and £3.3 billion — due to uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The company explicitly stated: 'Much will depend upon the duration of the conflict and in particular, the potential implications for UK households and the economy more broadly.' This is the sole external factor cited in the news body as directly influencing its revised outlook.

How does Tesco's updated 2026/27 profit forecast compare to its 2025/26 result and to prior analyst expectations?

Tesco's updated 2026/27 adjusted operating profit forecast of £3.0–£3.3 billion falls within a range that includes its 2025/26 result of £3.152 billion — a 0.6% increase on 2024/25 and 'slightly ahead of guidance.' Prior to the update, analysts on average had forecast £3.23 billion for 2026/27, meaning Tesco's new midpoint (£3.15 billion) is marginally below that consensus, while its full range now reflects heightened uncertainty rather than a single-point estimate.

Tesco Says Iran War Uncertainty Weighs on Profit Outlook

Apr 15, 2026

Tesco forecast adjusted operating profit of £3.0–3.3 billion for 2026/27, widening guidance due to Middle East conflict uncertainty affecting UK households and the economy.

reuters

2026-04-15

Tesco Says Iran War Uncertainty Weighs on Profit Outlook

Tesco Says Iran War Uncertainty Weighs on Profit Outlook

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