How should we view Ukraine's large-scale drone special operations against Russia, reportedly destroying 41 Russian strategic bombers? What impact will this have on Ukraine-Russia negotiations?

That is to say, over the course of a year and a half, Ukrainian forces secretly infiltrated numerous drones and explosives into Russia’s interior through various means—dispersing them across five Russian regions—and ultimately executed this strike. It must be said that Ukraine has demonstrated considerable proficiency in conducting such infiltration-based special operations. Conversely, the fact that Russia failed to detect this operation over a year and a half also speaks volumes about the serious shortcomings of its intelligence agencies. After the incident, Ukraine’s security services even boastfully shared with media photos of these drones stored inside warehouses on Russian soil. How exactly these drones and explosives were smuggled into Russia and maintained there undetected remains unclear, with differing accounts circulating. One theory suggests the drones were smuggled in fully assembled and later combined with explosives inside Russia. Another holds that both drones and explosives were broken down into components, smuggled separately, and reassembled within Russia. A third speculation posits that civilian supply chains inside Russia were exploited to complete final assembly. The precise infiltration method remains unknown—since it constitutes a core operational secret, Ukraine has no incentive to disclose it; doing so would only complicate future infiltration efforts. What is confirmed is that trucks carrying explosive-laden drones were driven to the perimeters of Russian air bases, where their roofs were opened and dozens of drones launched simultaneously to carry out the attack. This type of special operation undoubtedly represents one novel form of modern warfare—and a vivid illustration of how drones are profoundly transforming contemporary conflict. Moreover, according to Russian media reports, the drivers transporting containers loaded with drones were locally hired on a temporary basis and had no idea what cargo they were hauling. This tactic mirrors Ukraine’s earlier bombing of the Crimean Bridge: in that case, Ukraine similarly hired a driver, loaded his truck with explosives, directed him to the bridge, and detonated the payload—killing the driver in the process. President Zelenskyy naturally expressed great satisfaction today, stating: “This operation was prepared for over a year and a half. Every plan, every detail was meticulously designed. Now the most interesting part can be publicly discussed: our operational office inside Russian territory was located right next to the headquarters of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), in one of the regions.” Zelenskyy also revealed that 117 drones were launched during this operation and that all Ukrainian personnel involved had safely withdrawn. If Zelenskyy’s claims hold true, then after Ukrainian operatives assembled the drones and explosives inside Russia, they likely employed AI-driven autonomous navigation systems enabling the drones to identify and strike strategic bombers without remote control—thus allowing operatives to withdraw well in advance. Tactically speaking, this Ukrainian operation was unquestionably successful—and represents Kyiv’s single greatest blow against the Russian Air Force over the past three years. Strategically, however, this operation cannot conceal Ukraine’s current battlefield setbacks. Since Trump’s return to power, his outright abandonment of Ukraine has severely dampened Ukrainian troop morale. Furthermore, with U.S. military aid cut off, Ukraine now relies solely on European support—a lifeline proving insufficient in both scope and sustainability. As a result, Ukraine faces acute ammunition shortages. Moreover, after three years of relentless combat, Ukrainian forces have suffered devastating personnel losses, leading to severe manpower shortages and frontline troop exhaustion.

Ukrainian forces launched an attack on Russia’s heartland using over a thousand drones and missiles; approximately 450 drones were shot down around Moscow.

This refinery not only supplies energy to the Moscow region but also serves as one of the ‘gas stations’ for Russia’s frontline armed forces. This strike thus directly hit Russia’s logistical ‘main artery.’ According to preliminary assessment reports, restoring production at this facility will take at least six months. Additionally, a drone struck the roof of a 21-story residential building in Moscow Oblast, igniting a fire and forcing the emergency evacuation of over 400 residents in the middle of the night. In Sofino, south of Moscow, another drone hit a residential building, killing one woman and injuring five others. Several airports in Moscow also experienced flight restrictions or outright cancellations due to the attacks. Following the strikes, Zelenskyy posted on social media: “Moscow must end this brutal war and choose peace—not build ever more layered air-defense systems at the expense of other regions.” Zelenskyy also unusually disclosed the specific weapons used in this operation: FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, ‘Palianytsia,’ Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Sichen, FP-5 ‘Flamingo’ cruise missiles, and FP-7 ‘Pelican’ ballistic missiles—among others. Among these, the FP-7 ‘Pelican’ ballistic missile appears to have made its combat debut, having completed testing just ten days prior. However, according to data released by the ‘Firepoint’ company, this missile likely did not reach Moscow, instead striking targets near the Ukraine–Russia border. Why? Simply because the FP-7’s maximum range is only about 200 kilometers—far short of the roughly 450 kilometers separating Moscow from the Ukrainian border. Its inclusion on the presidential list was probably intended to boost morale. While the FP-7 could not reach Moscow, the longer-established FP-5 faced no such limitation—and debris from this missile has already surfaced online. The coordinated use of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and diverse drones demonstrates that Ukraine not only delivered concentrated physical damage against Russia—but also signaled, from a broader perspective, its newly acquired capability to launch sizable strikes deep into Russia’s interior. Such an operation would have been nearly unimaginable just a year ago, underscoring the astonishing pace of advancement in Ukraine’s defense industry. So, what is Ukraine’s objective in launching such a large-scale assault? In my analysis, beyond continuously degrading Russia’s critical energy infrastructure, this operation appears primarily aimed at probing for vulnerabilities in Russia’s homeland and Moscow-region air defenses—identifying optimal breakthrough points for future strikes. Additionally, this attack occurred on the eve of Zelenskyy’s upcoming meeting with Trump at the United Nations General Assembly.

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