Could India rise to become the world's number one superpower—either now or in the future?

Of course, Singapore is a small country—not only can it not afford to offend China or the U.S., but it also cannot afford to antagonize its neighboring Southeast Asian nations. With its tiny land area, small population, and limited national strength, Singapore’s sole standout feature is its relatively strong economy. Besides avoiding antagonizing both China and the U.S., Lee Hsien Loong has also begun praising India, arguing that India’s younger demographic base gives it brighter long-term development prospects than China’s. Judging purely by population size, Africa’s economy would already have surpassed Europe’s. If we could turn back the clock 40 years and allow India to launch reform and opening-up policies just as China did—and sustain economic development relentlessly for a generation—could India achieve similar results? Or could any other country do so? When the global economy is booming, India benefits alongside it. But when the world economy slows down and the U.S. initiates a global trade war, can India weather this difficult period as China did? That remains highly uncertain. In 2024, foreign capital outflows from India hit a record $78.5 billion, while FDI into manufacturing plummeted 85% year-on-year. Samsung shifted its planned $17-billion semiconductor factory to Hungary; Apple has relocated 75% of its production capacity to Vietnam. S&P assigned India a sovereign credit rating of BBB− and warned that “institutionalized expropriation could trigger a debt crisis.” In 2025, net foreign capital outflows from India exceeded $17 billion, with only $350 million flowing in. Even more alarming: Indian domestic enterprises themselves transferred $29 billion overseas this year. Such frenzied foreign capital flight is certainly not good news for India. India is currently treading precisely the same path China followed after its reform and opening-up—aiming to inherit China’s manufacturing mantle! India’s plan is to achieve national resurgence by absorbing China’s manufacturing capacity.

India’s GDP growth in April reached 7.4%, far exceeding market expectations! What are the distinctive features of India’s economy, and why has it sustained such robust growth amid adverse global conditions?

Let us add here that although India’s own population faces insufficient food supplies and low per-acre agricultural output, India remains a major global grain exporter. Its grain output is projected to grow by 3.5–4% in 2025, and rising rural demand has likewise expanded the consumer market. The Indian government has launched initiatives such as the ‘Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi’ (PM-KISAN) and the ‘Pulses Self-Sufficiency Programme’, raising farmers’ loan limits and upgrading irrigation infrastructure to boost agricultural productivity and alleviate rural poverty. So far, these measures show some effect—though outcomes would improve further if distribution channels were made more transparent. We are now entering the ‘Modi 2.0 Economic Reform Cycle!’ Prime Minister Modi has pledged to make India the world’s leading nation—and intends to deliver on that promise! Accordingly, India’s federal budget for fiscal year 2025–26 focuses on four key growth pillars: agriculture, micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), investment, and exports—with special emphasis on strengthening private-sector purchasing power. For instance, income tax is waived for individuals earning under ₹1.2 million annually, directly unleashing consumption potential; ₹1.5 trillion in interest-free loans are being provided to states for infrastructure projects; and a ₹1-trillion Urban Challenge Fund has been established to upgrade urban infrastructure. These measures have spurred private investment and driven a 10% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure for FY2025. Although India’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has fallen short of overall targets, it has achieved notable success in electronics manufacturing—largely due to Western efforts to diversify supply chains away from China. In 2024, India’s electronics exports surged 35.1%, with mobile phone exports capturing 12% of global market share—up from just 1% in 2014. The government has further launched a ₹250-billion electronics component manufacturing initiative, aiming to raise local value-addition from 15% to 50% by 2030! Thus, India has seized opportunities arising from global supply-chain realignment: in FY2023–24, its total exports reached $778.21 billion, with electronics, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods exports growing by 35%, 15%, and 18%, respectively. Over 50% of India’s exports go to Belt and Road Initiative countries, and deeper cooperation with ASEAN via the RCEP has widened trade ties—India’s trade deficit with ASEAN widened to $122.4 billion in 2024. The Indian government is also investing $1.4 trillion under its National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) to upgrade railways, highways, and power supply. In 2025, railway freight growth reached 4.5%—still lagging behind manufacturing demand, yet markedly improved over previous years. Paradoxically, despite actively promoting manufacturing, India’s manufacturing share of GDP declined from 16.3% in 2015 to 14.3% in 2025—far below its 25% target. The PLI scheme has achieved only 37% of its targeted output, hampered by delayed subsidy disbursements and low corporate participation. Infrastructure deficits—such as unreliable electricity supply—and skill gaps among the labor force constrain industrial competitiveness: textile workers’ skill levels trail those in competing countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Yet these are merely surface-level issues—the core reality is that India’s prosperity and growth remain oligarchic in nature!

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