Global flight cancellations surged by 111% in March, airfares skyrocketed—will you still fly for the May Day holiday?

Those who act swiftly have already booked. According to data released today by Variflight, as of now, domestic flight bookings for China’s 2026 May Day holiday have exceeded 1.94 million tickets—a roughly 8% year-on-year increase—while cross-border flight bookings have surpassed 750,000 tickets, also showing year-on-year growth. If you haven’t yet made plans, here’s some bad news that may affect you: While May Day flight bookings are rising, airfares have quietly increased. Variflight forecasts that fares on multiple popular routes will peak on April 30. This spring’s fare hikes stem from more than just the usual holiday-driven supply-and-demand dynamics. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, international civil aviation has suffered massive disruption—and persistently surging global oil prices have significantly raised our travel costs. Data from Cirium, a leading international aviation analytics firm, shows that rising airfares represent only one facet of the U.S.-Iran conflict’s impact on global civil aviation. Affected by the conflict, global flight cancellations in March 2026 reached 92,523 flights—up a staggering 111% year-on-year from 43,904 flights in March 2025. Cancellations surged most sharply in the Middle East and Africa, jumping 966%. Although the conflict’s immediate impact on flight operations across the Middle East is now easing, airlines face challenges far beyond restoring disrupted services. They must rebuild flight schedules within an entirely new operating environment—and restoring the region’s connectivity as the “crossroads of global aviation” remains a monumental task. Clearly, this systemic crisis has hit far more than the so-called “Big Three Gulf Carriers”—Etihad Airways, Emirates, and Qatar Airways. Last Friday, Cathay Pacific announced it would suspend all flights to and from Riyadh and Dubai, effective immediately until June 30, 2026, citing the latest developments in the Middle East situation. Meanwhile, amid heightened regional tensions and soaring aviation fuel prices, airlines are bearing heavy cost pressures. To alleviate mounting cost burdens, Cathay Pacific and its low-cost subsidiary HK Express will reduce capacity. Cathay Pacific will consolidate flights between May 16 and June 30, canceling approximately 2% of its total scheduled flights—primarily short-haul regional services, plus a small number of flights to Australia, South Asia, and South Africa. HK Express will implement flight consolidation from May 11 through June 30, canceling about 6% of its total scheduled flights. In its media statement, Cathay Pacific stated: “Although the company has adopted various measures to respond, these remain insufficient to offset the impact of rising fuel prices.” In fact, while Cathay Pacific has been among the swiftest and most proactive carriers in responding, it is far from alone—the conflict has affected virtually every major airline worldwide.

Soaring aviation fuel prices have pushed airlines into 'self-preservation mode,' prompting intensified flight cancellations ahead of the summer peak season.

Initially confined to Middle Eastern carriers and their airspace, this crisis rapidly spread globally after the U.S. Navy blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off Iranian oil exports. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines announced on Thursday that it would cancel 80 round-trip flights from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport over the next month—joining United Airlines, Lufthansa, and Cathay Pacific in scaling back operations. Richard Evans, Senior Advisor at Cirium, bluntly stated in his report: “Further cuts are virtually inevitable.” Airlines across the globe—from North America and Europe to Asia-Pacific—are retrenching. U.S. carriers have felt the impact most directly. United Airlines is cutting 5% of its capacity for the full year, with reductions extending through September; Delta Air Lines expects to absorb an additional $2.5 billion in fuel costs this quarter, offsetting part of the burden through fare hikes and trimming roughly 3.5% of its capacity. Delta CEO Ed Bastian remarked: “Any route operating at the margin—where revenues fall short of expectations—will be subject to renewed scrutiny. This will be a test for the entire industry.” Lufthansa has taken the most aggressive action this week. Under dual pressure from escalating strikes and worsening fuel costs, Europe’s largest airline has shut down its CityLine regional subsidiary, grounded 27 CRJ regional jets, and retired select aging wide-body aircraft—including Boeing 747s and Airbus A340s. Group CFO Till Streichert stated: “Given the sharp rise in aviation fuel costs and ongoing geopolitical instability, accelerating fleet and capacity adjustments is unavoidable.” Its Edelweiss brand has also suspended services to Denver and Seattle. Pressure is mounting across the Asia-Pacific region, too. Qantas is cutting domestic capacity by 5% through the end of June, reducing flights to the U.S., and expects additional fuel expenses of approximately AUD 800 million (USD 575 million) in the second half of its fiscal year. Cathay Pacific will reduce flight frequency across Asia-Pacific by 2% from mid-May through late June, while its low-cost subsidiary HK Express will cut capacity by 6%. Cathay’s Chief Customer and Commercial Officer, Lavinia Lau, candidly admitted: “We have exhausted all appropriate measures to maintain normal operations—but they remain insufficient to counterbalance the substantial increase in fuel costs.” A growing number of smaller routes are vanishing rapidly. Air Canada has canceled flights from Montreal and Toronto to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, while retaining services to Newark and LaGuardia airports.

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