What is the IEA's outlook for global crude supply recovery, and what key condition does it depend on?

The IEA states that crude supply could gradually recover through the second half of the year 'if a peace deal between the US and Iran is struck'; supply is projected to fall to 102.4 million barrels/day in 2026 but then rise sharply to 110.3 million barrels/day in 2027 — an 8 million barrels/day increase — contingent on resolving supply chain disruptions, including mine clearance and normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

How have global oil stocks and refinery operations been affected by the Middle East conflict, according to the IEA?

OECD government inventories fell by 163 million barrels to the lowest level since December 1990, with global oil reserves dropping by 143 million barrels in May alone (4.6 million barrels/day), while refinery throughput is expected to fall by 2 million barrels/day in 2026 to 82 million barrels/day — driven by a 4.7 million barrels/day drop in Q2 — before rebounding to 85 million barrels/day in 2027.

Crude Supply Recovery Through H2 Hinges on Peace Deal, 2027 to See Upswing – IEA

Jun 17, 2026

The IEA projects crude oil supply recovery in H2 pending a US-Iran peace deal, with production forecast to reach 110.3 million barrels/day by 2027. Global oil stocks remain at historic lows due to Middle East conflicts, impacting refinery throughput and demand.

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