Does obsession with the 'kill line' victory narrative cause people to overlook the robust recovery of U.S. manufacturing?

• The domestic U.S. supply chain system has been broken for many years. • Critical components and raw materials remain dependent on imports. • Rebuilding the supply chain requires both time and massive investment. • Dependence on Asia cannot be eliminated in the short term. Reason Four: Policy Uncertainty • Tariff policies have shifted repeatedly, prompting corporate观望 (cautious waiting). • Inconsistent policies between the two major parties make businesses worry whether subsidies will continue. • The regulatory environment is complex, and approval cycles are long. • Companies hesitate to scale up production significantly. IV. Objective Assessment: The Real State of U.S. Manufacturing 4.1 Neither "Collapsing" Nor "Robustly Recovering" Actual situation: • Investment boom: Investment is indeed growing under policy stimulus. • Output stagnation: Yet output and employment are not rising in tandem. • Structural problems: Labor shortages, incomplete supply chains, and high costs. • Limited policy effectiveness: Tariffs and subsidies have yielded disappointing results. • Long-term trend unchanged: The long-standing decline in manufacturing’s share of GDP remains unaltered. 4.2 Genuine Strengths of U.S. Manufacturing Field Strength Representative Companies Aerospace Global leadership Boeing, Lockheed Martin Semiconductor equipment Global monopoly Applied Materials, Lam Research Biopharmaceuticals Global leadership Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Merck Agricultural machinery Global leadership John Deere Chemicals Global leadership Dow Chemical, DuPont Software & IT services Global dominance Microsoft, Google, Amazon 4.3 Genuine Weaknesses of U.S. Manufacturing Field Weakness Data Consumer electronics Virtually lost Design occurs in the U.S.; production is in China and Southeast Asia. Apparel & textiles Virtually lost Over 90% imported. Steel Lacking competitiveness Heavy import dependence. Shipbuilding Virtually lost Less than 1% global share. Home appliances Virtually lost Import-dependent. 5G equipment Lagging behind Huawei and ZTE lead. Key insight: The U.S. retains clear advantages in high-end manufacturing, yet its overall manufacturing value chain is highly fragmented. V. Critical Examination of the 'Kill Line' Narrative and the U.S. Manufacturing Recovery 5.1 We Should Not Obsess Over 'Kill Line' Victory Thinking Problem 1: Underestimating U.S. Resilience • Though manufacturing’s share of GDP has declined, its absolute size remains large ($2.3 trillion). • The U.S. still holds advantages in high-end manufacturing, original innovation, and financial systems. • It possesses strong self-repair capacity and room for policy adjustment. Problem 2: Overlooking China’s Own Challenges • China’s manufacturing sector is large but not yet strong—still reliant on imports for advanced chips, etc. • Severe overcapacity and cutthroat competition squeeze corporate profits. • Aging population and rising labor costs. Problem 3: Strategic Complacency • Assuming the U.S. is about to collapse, thus no need for effort. • Ignoring technological gaps and indulging in blind optimism. • Delaying reforms and missing critical development opportunities. 5.2 The Narrative of a 'Robust U.S. Manufacturing Recovery' Is Somewhat Misleading Problem 1: Confusing Investment with Output • Investment growth does not equal output growth. • Rising construction spending does not signal manufacturing recovery. • It takes 5–7 years before tangible effects materialize. Problem 2: Selective Use of Data • Highlighting investment growth while ignoring PMI’s 10 consecutive months of contraction. • Emphasizing isolated projects while overlooking overall job losses. • Stressing policy intensity while neglecting poor implementation outcomes. Problem 3: Ignoring Structural Problems • Labor shortages are a long-term issue. • Supply chain disruptions cannot be repaired quickly. • Cost disadvantages are difficult to reverse.

U.S. manufacturing has expanded for the eighth consecutive month, yet momentum has slowed for the past several months: Interpreting the ISM August Report

The sub-indexes paint a clearer picture than the headline index. New orders stood at 53.7%, down 3.0 percentage points from July’s 56.7%; output was 58.3%, barely down from July’s 58.5% (the highest since November 2021); employment fell 1.6 points to 51.2%; supplier deliveries rose 0.4 points to 59.3% (an index above 50 indicates slower deliveries); inventories dropped 0.6 points to 50.6%; the prices paid index held steady at 71.1%; backlog orders fell 3.2 points to 51.8%; customer inventories rose 2.1 points to 42.8%; new export orders edged up 0.2 points to 53.2%; and imports fell 3.2 points to 52.5%. Fifteen of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth, including primary metals, electrical equipment, transportation equipment, computers and electronics, and machinery; only two contracted: wood products and chemicals. Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, characterized the sector as “still in expansion territory, but having lost ground in new orders, backlog orders, and imports”; five of the six major manufacturing sectors expanded. Among negative comments from respondents, 57% cited price volatility, 46% cited extended delivery times, 30% mentioned the Iran war, and 29% referenced tariffs; the ratio of positive to negative comments declined from 3.3:1 in July to 2.2:1 in August. Looking at the time series since December 2025, the assessment of slowing momentum holds: the headline index retreated from its July peak; new orders peaked in May (56.8%) and have since trended downward with volatility; backlog orders have declined consecutively; and the employment index, which rose above 50 for the first time in 33 months in July (52.8%), slipped back to 51.2% in August. The sole index remaining at elevated levels is output—indicating factories are working through existing order books, while inflows of new demand are decelerating. A technical note: The supplier deliveries index contributes positively to the PMI calculation when deliveries slow down; August’s reading of 59.3% reflects supply constraints rather than strong demand to a significant degree. Excluding this factor, the ‘substantive’ strength of expansion implied by the headline index of 54.6% is weaker. Another set of indices: S&P Global’s methodology S&P Global’s final U.S. manufacturing PMI for August stood at 53.9—revised upward from the preliminary reading of 53.2 released on August 21—and matching the readings for June and July—marking three consecutive months at 53.9. When the preliminary figure was released, it was interpreted as “the weakest since March”; the final reading no longer supports that characterization. Yet directional trends across sub-indices align with ISM’s: output has grown for 15 consecutive months, though growth pace is the weakest since February, driven by rising prices and supply constraints; new orders grew solidly, primarily supported by domestic demand; export orders have declined for 14 consecutive months, with tariffs being the main drag—though European demand showed slight improvement; hiring was the fastest since 2026; business confidence reached a three-month high; delivery times lengthened markedly; and finished-goods inventories rose at the fastest pace since May. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, stated that U.S. manufacturing “remains pleasingly expansionary, but August data reveal some cracks emerging in the sector’s health.”

US manufacturing output falls in August after rising for seven straight months

4 days ago

U.S. factory production unexpectedly dropped 0.3% in August following seven consecutive monthly increases, though activity remains supported by AI buildout, according to Federal Reserve data.

reuters

2026-09-18

US manufacturing output falls in August after rising for seven straight months

US manufacturing output falls in August after rising for seven straight months

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