According to the IMF, how is the Middle East war affecting Asia's economic outlook despite its continued role as the global growth engine?

The IMF states that while Asia remains the primary engine of global growth, its resilience is now being tested by a new external shock — rising oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East war — which introduces fresh uncertainty and exposes the region’s high energy intensity and import dependence, particularly given Asia consumes 38% of the world’s oil and 24% of its natural gas, and accounts for about 80% of LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

What are the IMF's revised 2026 growth forecasts for China and India, and what key factors explain the slowdown?

The IMF revised China’s 2026 growth forecast down by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, decelerating from 5.0% in 2025, and expects India’s growth to slow to 6.5% in both 2026 and 2027 from 7.6% in 2025; this modest correction reflects a carryover from China’s strong 2025 performance alongside the cooling effects of the Middle East war, while growth across many Asian economies was stronger than expected in late 2025 due to the robust technology cycle, domestic policy support, and accommodative financial conditions.

Asia Economic Resilience Tested by Energy Shock – IMF

Apr 17, 2026

The IMF projects Asia’s growth will moderate due to a Middle East-fueled energy crisis, citing high exposure to oil and gas price spikes. The report highlights significant risks to refining capacity and petrochemical supply chains across the region.

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Asia Economic Resilience Tested by Energy Shock – IMF

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