What does NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast indicate in terms of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes?

NOAA's 2026 outlook forecasts a total of 8–14 named storms, of which 3–6 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of at least 74 mph), and 1–3 of those hurricanes are expected to be major hurricanes (with winds exceeding 110 mph); this is below the average season, which brings 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

How do the predicted probabilities of major hurricane landfalls in Texas and Louisiana for 2026 compare to their long-term averages?

Colorado State University's April 9 forecast estimates an 11% probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall in Texas in 2026—lower than the long-term average of 16%—and a 10% probability for Louisiana, compared to its long-term average of 14%.

NOAA Forecasts Below-Average Hurricane Season

May 22, 2026

NOAA forecasts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, benefiting the US petrochemical industry in Texas and Louisiana. Predictions indicate fewer major hurricanes than historical averages, potentially minimizing operational disruptions in key production regions.

chemweek

2026-05-22

NOAA Forecasts Below-Average Hurricane Season

NOAA Forecasts Below-Average Hurricane Season

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