The voting for Israel’s parliamentary election has concluded, and Netanyahu’s bloc failed to secure a majority. What does this mean? What lies ahead?

Although this Israeli parliamentary election may not necessarily constitute a victory for the opposition, it is certainly a defeat for Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition—led by a war-mongering, far-right fascist, corrupt usurper who flagrantly violates human rights. According to current vote-counting results—covering 85.6% of ballots cast—Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats versus the opposition’s 48; however, it falls short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a government. This means Netanyahu faces an arduous path to coalition-building.[1] Meanwhile, Arab parties are set to hold 19 seats, posing a major obstacle to Netanyahu’s coalition. This outcome will deliver yet another blow to the international far-right and alt-right forces—following the defeats of Viktor Orbán and Jair Bolsonaro. Over recent years, far-right and alt-right parties across Europe and the U.S. have coalesced, mutually supporting each other’s campaigns—yet paradoxically, the tighter their alliance, the faster their electoral collapse. Midterm polling also all but guarantees Donald Trump’s defeat. Only Russia’s tyrannical usurper Vladimir Putin remains barely afloat—relying on electoral fraud and Trump’s backing. Even more brazenly, Netanyahu’s regime had already prepared to reject the election results: prior to voting, the Likud Party declared that, should Netanyahu’s bloc lose, it would accuse opponents of ballot theft.[2] Did no one within Netanyahu’s camp believe victory was possible—so much so that they abandoned hope before polls even opened, preemptively disavowing the legitimacy of the election itself? After voting ended, although actual results outperformed exit polls, Likud continued peddling conspiracy theories about “Arab voters casting duplicate ballots.”[3] The concrete prospects for coalition formation now hinge on the opposition’s stance—specifically, whether opposition parties are willing to abandon “Little-Netanyahu-ism”: i.e., opposing Netanyahu personally while still adhering to the erroneous policy of defining Israel exclusively as a Jewish state and maintaining hostility toward Palestinians and other Arab nations—and instead cooperate with Arab parties. Currently, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu (“Israel Our Home”), refuses cooperation both with Netanyahu and with Arab parties. Lieberman himself is a former extreme anti-Arab racist who, during the last Gaza war, criticized Netanyahu for being “too soft.” Should he maintain this position, it will pose a serious complication for the opposition: combined, the parties Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, the Democratic Party, and the two Arab parties still fall short of the 61-seat threshold. Other opposition factions, however, adopt a more open posture. Many supporters and civil society members are actively calling for cooperation with Arab parties.[4] Yair Golan, leader of the Democratic Party—the most left-wing Jewish party (though still hardly radical)—has urged fellow opposition parties to agree to collaborate with Arab parties to topple Netanyahu’s government.[5] Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot appears similarly receptive. Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta’al Party (part of the Joint List), stated that the opposition coalition has already contacted him.[6] On the Arab side, Ra’am has explicitly extended an olive branch to the opposition coalition, signaling willingness to cooperate. Ra’am previously participated in a unity government.

Voting in Israel’s parliamentary election has concluded, and exit polls show Netanyahu’s bloc fell short of a majority. How should we interpret this result? What fate awaits Netanyahu?

These percentages cannot be directly converted into seat counts. The Arab Joint List garnered 6.54% of counted votes, while Ra’am secured 3.20%—together totaling 9.7%. All three major exit polls assigned them 18–19 seats, roughly 15% of the Knesset. At 3:24 a.m., when the first batch of results was released, these two parties collectively held only 6.0%, whereas the governing bloc stood at 49.5%. Forty minutes later, as nearly double the number of ballots had been tallied, the Arab parties’ share rose by 3.7 percentage points, while the governing bloc dropped by 1.7 points. Early reporting stations do not represent the national electorate; as counting progresses, this gap narrows further—but how far it closes remains uncertain. Being the largest party does not automatically confer the right to form a government. Netanyahu’s ‘fate’ hinges on President Isaac Herzog’s round of consultations. Per The Times of Israel’s election guide, the Central Elections Committee will officially announce final results on November 4. Thereafter, the President individually consults all parties that entered the Knesset, authorizing the legislator he deems most suitable to form a government. The first nominee receives 28 days—extendable by 14 days—to complete negotiations; if unsuccessful, the second nominee gets 28 days; if that too fails, any 61 MKs may jointly petition the President to appoint another negotiator within 21 days. According to Channel 12’s early-night report, more MKs recommended Netanyahu than Eisenkot during Herzog’s consultations; per the other two outlets, recommendations were evenly split—making Arab parties’ endorsements of Eisenkot decisive. This represents Netanyahu’s newly gained leverage compared to initial exit polls—but receiving the most recommendations differs fundamentally from securing 61 seats. With 52 seats, Netanyahu still needs nine more. Potential sources for those seats fall into three categories. First, the electoral threshold. Ofer Winter’s Israel People’s Party sits on Netanyahu’s side; The Jerusalem Post quoted a ruling-coalition official saying Winter “cost the right-wing bloc its decisive victory.” Yet the party currently stands at just 1.82%—well below the 3.25% threshold. Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha’s Reservists and Economy Party dropped from 3.09% in the first tally to 2.86%—still about 0.4 points shy of the threshold. Crossing it would likely yield around four seats. Hendel stated only, “We will not give up until there is a Zionist government.” Second, defections from the opposition. Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu commands seven to eight seats—universally classified by media as part of the opposition bloc. To reach 61, Netanyahu must peel away members from such parties. Third, dual-envelope ballots: approximately 650,000 ballots cast by soldiers, diplomats, healthcare workers, and incarcerated individuals require separate counting. Ynet reports these may not be fully tallied until Friday morning. Statements made by both leaders that night: Netanyahu, speaking at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem at dawn, said, “We are still awaiting the actual results,” claimed the right-wing bloc had won a “decisive majority among the Zionist public,” vowed to form a “right-wing national government,” and criticized opponents open to cooperating with Arab parties. Eisenkot, speaking in Tel Aviv, remarked, “These remain exit poll results—we must await the final count.” Both sides are waiting for precisely the same thing.

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