Is this a question of whether Indians can still survive?

Having discussed natural disasters, let’s now turn to man-made ones. If geographical conditions are the dry kindling, then the Indian government’s ‘brilliant’ policy moves are like dousing the fire with scalding hot oil. First and foremost is ecological destruction. As a tropical monsoon country, India’s forest cover stands at only 24%, and 35% of that consists of ‘degraded forests’—forests so fragile they spontaneously ignite during droughts. Over the past two decades, India has recklessly felled 2.33 million hectares of forest—95% of which were natural forests. Why? One reason is that rural households cannot afford natural gas and must therefore cut trees for firewood; another is that India accepted massive furniture orders from the U.S., but lacking foreign exchange to import timber, it resorted to cutting down its own forests. Massive deforestation has drastically reduced India’s forest cover, sent carbon emissions soaring, and rendered surface temperatures completely uncontrollable. Beyond tree-felling, there’s also suffocating urbanization. Since Modi took office, infrastructure development has surged—skyscrapers rise rapidly in cities, yet green spaces were entirely overlooked. Satellite imagery reveals that vegetation coverage in major Indian cities falls below 5%. Vast wetlands have been flattened and replaced by dense concrete jungles and asphalt roads. During the day, cement absorbs heat voraciously; at night, it releases it aggressively—mixing with automobile exhaust and pervasive black carbon to form a thick, suffocating ‘brown cloud’ hovering over cities. This cloud acts like an airtight quilt, intensifying the urban heat island effect—cities simply cannot cool down at night. The consequences of extreme heat amount to a ‘dimensional downgrade’ for people’s livelihoods and the economy. The first to collapse under this heatwave exam—unsurprisingly—is India’s power sector, an annual ritual. In summer, hundreds of millions simultaneously switch on fans and air conditioners, sending electricity demand skyrocketing: by late April, peak demand hit a record 256.4 gigawatts, pushing the already fragile grid to its breaking point. India’s Ministry of Power proudly declared: “India successfully met its highest-ever electricity demand—with no blackouts anywhere!” Sweating profusely at home, ordinary citizens are too exhausted to even mock it. Industry insiders instantly see through the ruse: officials selectively cited data from 3:38 p.m.—when the sun blazes brightest and solar panels operate at full capacity, naturally ensuring no shortage. But the horror story unfolds after sunset. At 10:30 p.m., solar generation drops to zero. Heat absorbed all day remains trapped inside concrete buildings, unable to dissipate. Everyone returns home and cranks up their ACs and fans to maximum—immediately widening the supply-demand gap to 5.4 gigawatts, triggering blackouts for millions of households. This nightly catastrophe is omitted entirely from official press releases—a textbook case of willful blindness. In truth, India’s electricity problem has never been about insufficient generation. After all, India ranks third globally in power generation—behind only China and the U.S. As India’s Power Minister himself stated, India is a net power surplus country—and even a net power exporter. Yet the problem lies in extremely outdated infrastructure, grossly unequal distribution, and shockingly incompetent management. Coal-fired power accounts for over 70% of India’s total generation—but relies on obsolete generating units with abysmally low fuel efficiency. Moreover, when ambient temperatures soar to 45°C, not only humans suffer—aging steam turbines and transformers also ‘heatstroke’: thermal stress spikes, failures multiply, and by late April alone, 21 gigawatts of capacity had already gone offline. Even more critical is India’s poor-quality domestic coal, forcing heavy reliance on imports. When Middle Eastern tensions escalate, global oil, gas, and coal prices surge—and private power plants reliant on imported coal realize that generating electricity at contracted rates would mean operating at a loss. So they simply shut down.

The wolf has cried 'wolf' too many times—this time, it might actually be real: on climate, war, and your dinner table

Even more troubling developments lie ahead—McKinsey forecasts that Ukrainian wheat output in the next harvest season could decline by 35% to 45%, with total production falling 30 to 44 million tons below normal levels. This is no minor issue. Now consider India. Don’t forget: India is also a major agricultural nation. Persistent extreme heatwaves are inflicting direct, severe damage on Indian agriculture—elevating irrigation demands across farmlands and sharply increasing pressure on food production. A joint report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that extreme heat has become a lethal threat to India’s agricultural system; without effective mitigation measures, rice production across India’s major river basins faces catastrophic losses. India’s Meteorological Department forecasts that nationwide seasonal rainfall this year may fall to roughly 92% of the long-term average, with risks of high-temperature drought continuing to mount. Reduced precipitation coupled with extreme heatwaves delivers a double blow to Indian agriculture. What do these figures mean? The immediate result is rising food prices. According to FAO data released in early May, the global food price index rose for the third consecutive month in April, reaching 130.7 points—a 1.6% increase month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year. World Bank data offers even greater granularity: in Q1 2026, global grain prices rose 5% overall, with wheat up 9% and corn up 4%. The FAO has slightly lowered its 2026 global wheat production forecast, expecting this year’s output to drop roughly 2% compared to last year. The FAO specifically highlights that ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts are prompting farmers to shift toward crops requiring less fertilizer—reducing wheat acreage and further driving up wheat prices. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections are even grimmer: U.S. wheat production is expected to fall to its lowest level since 1957—a powerful price signal reverberating across global grain markets. Looking further ahead, the International Grains Council forecasts that global grain output in the 2026–27 marketing year will decline approximately 3% from last year’s record high—the first annual contraction in four years. Climate change + war = compounding risk What we face is not a single isolated risk—but the dangerous convergence of multiple risks. On one hand, El Niño is reshaping global precipitation patterns—triggering floods in some regions while intensifying droughts elsewhere, directly disrupting crop growth cycles. India’s heatwaves are the most direct example. On the other, geopolitical conflict is severing critical nodes in the global food supply chain—driving fertilizer prices skyward and obstructing logistics. This dual-force convergence—what I refer to in the title as ‘climate anomaly叠加 war’—means both nature’s volatility and human conflict are jointly steering us toward diminished harvests. Harvard University research shows that approximately 380 million Indian workers labor continuously under extreme heat—three-quarters of the nation’s entire workforce. Heat-induced productivity loss exceeds 160 billion working hours annually, and by 2030, economic losses attributable to extreme heat could reach 2.5% to 4.5% of India’s GDP. When declining productivity, shrinking harvests, and broken supply chains converge, global food prices can only continue climbing. Professor Kaveh Madani puts it bluntly: We are effectively living in a state of ‘global water bankruptcy’—long-term over-extraction of water resources has left ecosystems stripped of any buffer capacity to absorb sudden shocks.

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NTPC Profit Jumps as El Niño Heat Drives India Power Demand

NTPC Profit Jumps as El Niño Heat Drives India Power Demand

FAQ