Industry Report | Consumption Trends in China’s Beer Industry — Saturated Consumer Market, Rising Market Concentration, and CR6 as High as 92.6%!

【Answer 1】 01 Key Insights 1. Overall social retail sales are improving; liquor retail growth has rebounded, aided by e-commerce channel promotions. From January to October 2024, retail sales of tobacco and alcoholic beverages increased by 6.1% year-on-year. 2. China’s beer market is saturated, with annual production declining year after year. In 2020, China’s beer output hit a nadir, falling to 34.11 million kiloliters. 3. Consumption scenarios have expanded; emotional consumption has become a necessity; beer preferences are diversifying, and multi-dimensional flavor profiles are trending. 4. China’s beer industry has entered the second half of its premiumization journey. 5. Market concentration in the beer sector continues to rise: in 2023, the CR6 (combined market share of the top six enterprises) for China’s beer industry reached 92.6%. 6. China Resources Snow Breweries’ premiumization strategy has delivered notable results: in the first half of 2024, sales volume of mid-tier and higher-end beers accounted for over 50% of total sales for the first time; sales volume of upper-mid-tier and higher-end beers grew at a single-digit rate year-on-year. 7. Chongqing Brewery’s brand portfolio strategy in practice: In 2020, Carlsberg completed a major asset restructuring with Chongqing Brewery. Over four years, Chongqing Brewery’s revenue rose from RMB 10.94 billion in 2020 to RMB 14.82 billion in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 10.6%. 02 Report Excerpts I. Preliminary Q1 Performance Outlook for Key Enterprises II. Saturation in China’s Beer Consumption Market in 2024, with Annual Production Declining Year-on-Year Overall social retail sales are improving; liquor retail growth has rebounded due to e-commerce channel promotions. From January to October 2024, retail sales of tobacco and alcoholic beverages increased by 6.1% year-on-year, showing signs of recovery. As traditional consumer goods, tobacco and alcohol products enjoy relatively stable demand. Sales typically surge significantly during holidays and festive occasions. With the development of e-commerce platforms, online sales channels for alcoholic beverages have matured, enabling limited-edition and premium products to better reach target consumers via these platforms. Source: National Bureau of Statistics China’s beer market is saturated, with annual production declining year-on-year. Impacted by market saturation and shifts in consumption structure, China’s beer output has continued to decline. From 2014 to 2020, beer production fell steadily: in 2014, China’s beer output peaked near its decade-high at approximately 49.36 million kiloliters. Amid market saturation and structural changes in consumption, output had already dropped to 37.65 million kiloliters by 2019. In 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic further reduced consumption venues—especially restaurants and entertainment venues—significantly affecting beer consumption. That year, beer output plunged to its lowest point, falling to 34.11 million kiloliters. Source: National Bureau of Statistics In 2024, demand in the beer industry remains under sustained pressure, with pronounced seasonality. From January to October 2024, China’s cumulative beer output reached 25.36 million kiloliters, down 6.1% year-on-year. Overall demand in the beer industry remained subdued in 2024, heavily influenced by foodservice consumption and weather conditions. In Q3 2024, beer output declined by 4.4% year-on-year—consistent with the contraction seen in Q2. June and July 2024 saw beer output peak at 3.586 million kiloliters—the highest monthly output of the year. As beer is commonly consumed chilled or at room temperature and closely tied to on-premise consumption, the second and third quarters—characterized by higher temperatures—are traditionally peak seasons, whereas the first and fourth quarters—marked by cooler temperatures—are off-seasons, resulting in marked seasonal fluctuations.

The Baijiu Market During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holiday Period: A Peak Season That Is No Longer 'Booming'

【Answer 2】 Moreover, liquor producers’ attitudes toward distribution channels have noticeably softened this year. According to a Huachuang Securities survey, during the Mid-Autumn Festival inventory buildup period, most baijiu producers refrained from imposing mandatory payment collection targets on distributors. Performance evaluation criteria shifted from distributors’ payment receipts to end-consumer bottle-opening records. Channel inventory buildup was generally restrained: most liquor merchants replenished stock only as needed, avoiding bulk stocking. With manufacturers no longer enforcing rigid sales quotas and distributors no longer absorbing excessive inventory, the mutual understanding of “smaller orders, more frequent deliveries” has become standard practice. A GF Securities survey of distributors across five provinces revealed that current baijiu channel inventories are at low levels nationwide; inventories for leading brands have declined across the board. Nevertheless, distributors remain cautious about demand improvement during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, and the seasonal sales ramp-up has started later than in previous years. Inventory Reduction Underway The phenomenon of a “peak season without peak demand” is not unique to 2026—but this year’s chill feels especially biting. The most conspicuous signal appears in pricing. As of press time, the wholesale price for Moutai Feitian (original carton) stood at approximately RMB 1,740–1,760 per bottle—above its contractual price of RMB 1,369—and remains the industry’s sole core product without price inversion. By contrast, Wuliangye’s ‘Puwu’ (commonly known as ‘Ordinary Wuliangye’) trades at around RMB 830 per bottle—below its ex-factory price. The wholesale price for Guojiao 1573 ranges between RMB 835–887 per bottle; previously, its advance-payment price was RMB 910, indicating price inversion. After a RMB 70 reduction in mid-September, it has largely achieved price alignment. According to the China Alcoholic Drinks Association’s mid-year report, 56.6% of surveyed distributors and retailers reported that price inversion has worsened compared to last year. “Only Moutai remains resilient; many other brands have plummeted to rock-bottom prices,” remarked one distributor candidly. Underlying this price inversion lies unsold inventory yet to be absorbed. The inventory reduction cycle, initiated in Q2 2025, has now lasted nearly one and a half years. Per Huachuang Securities’ survey, terminal-level inventory for most brands has fallen to under two months—a relatively low level—with faster destocking at the terminal than at the distributor level. Yet distributor-level inventory pressure remains substantial, with some brands still holding four to five months’ worth of stock. High inventory levels coupled with weak demand inevitably weigh on pricing. Beyond pricing and inventory, the shift in demand warrants even greater attention. Industry observation indicates that the “holiday effect” is markedly weakening; rational consumption and value-for-money orientation have become mainstream. Consumption scenarios are shifting from business gifting and ceremonial use toward everyday functional needs; motivations are evolving from social-driven to self-oriented enjoyment. Baijiu is gradually shedding its role as a “social currency” and returning to its fundamental identity as a beverage. This sentiment finds validation in financial reports. In H1 2026, the combined revenue of 19 A-share-listed baijiu companies totaled approximately RMB 196.3 billion, down 6.7% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders amounted to roughly RMB 73.1 billion, down 8.4%. The top four companies contributed nearly 90% of total net profit, while the rest faced widespread pressure. The China Alcoholic Drinks Association’s mid-year survey further revealed that 74.8% of responding enterprises reported year-on-year revenue declines, and 86.7% reported falling profits. Demographic shifts and evolving consumption habits represent longer-term structural variables. Younger consumers are drinking less, prioritizing health more, and increasingly turning to low-alcohol and “tipsy” beverages—diverting demand away from traditional baijiu. According to data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, the low-alcohol beverage market is growing at a compound annual growth rate of ~25%, with consumers aged 18–35 accounting for nearly 70% of sales. The bare-bottle baijiu market exceeded RMB 200 billion in scale in 2025, with the RMB 50–100 price segment posting growth exceeding 40%. 35.2% of surveyed baijiu enterprises expressed optimism toward the “mass-consumption and bare-bottle baijiu” segment.

Tesco Expects Moderation Trend to Curb Festive Alcohol Sales

18 hours ago

Tesco CEO Ken Murphy forecasts reduced alcohol sales this Christmas due to health trends and GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, while noting growth in low- and no-alcohol alternatives.

reuters

2026-10-08

Tesco Expects Moderation Trend to Curb Festive Alcohol Sales

Tesco Expects Moderation Trend to Curb Festive Alcohol Sales

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