To curb oil prices, the Trump administration’s policy tools are 'nearly exhausted'.

Blas argues that the oil market wields power no less formidable than that of the bond market—and can likewise corner politicians. If the conflict drags on, soaring energy costs will, in turn, force Trump to end this war—not by his own volition, but under market pressure. At present, although oil prices have not yet breached the $100-per-barrel threshold, they are already hovering near that line. Blas estimates that each additional day of delay adds $3–$6 to the benchmark price. Over one week, that amounts to $15–$30; two weeks may still be tolerable, but beyond that, the global economy will begin suffering tangible harm. The more critical question is: what cards does the White House still hold? Blas reviews existing policy options one by one—and the conclusion is far from optimistic. Short-term measures might buy a few days’ respite, but none can resolve the underlying problem. The only true solution is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What remains in the White House’s 'toolbox'? Since the outbreak of the conflict, the White House has already deployed its most readily available tools: releasing strategic petroleum reserves and activating alternative pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. These steps have indeed granted the market a brief breathing space—but Blas judges that “this time window is measured in days, not weeks.” What other options remain? Blas lists them: Congress could suspend the federal fuel tax (the Biden administration did precisely this in 2022), but legislation takes time—and passage is far from guaranteed; states—especially those governed by Republicans—could declare fuel-tax holidays; Trump could also waive certain environmental standards for gasoline and diesel. Such domestic measures might temporarily ease pressure at home, but they would have zero effect on rising global oil prices. A more extreme option would be imposing an export ban on U.S. crude oil and refined products—this would indeed lower domestic prices, but would send global prices soaring even higher. Blas delivers a blunt verdict: “That would be a huge mistake.” Another highly sensitive option explicitly mentioned by Blas is direct intervention in the oil futures market. He says, “I believe the Trump administration has seriously considered this.” In fact, the Biden administration assessed the same option following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—but ultimately abandoned it due to excessively high risks and extremely low odds of success. This path is not only operationally perilous but also fraught with significant legal controversy. The 'destructive power' of oil prices has yet to fully manifest Blas also provides a relatively sober frame of reference: so far, the actual economic impact of this conflict on the global economy remains limited. WTI crude has not closed above $100 per barrel on any single day this year. By contrast, during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, WTI closed above $100 for nearly 83 consecutive days.

Diesel hits record $6.51 per gallon; top Republican leaders collectively pressure the administration to ban exports—yet implementation probability stands at just 35% amid intra-party divisions.

Pressure within the Republican Party is intensifying rapidly. As U.S. diesel prices surge to an all-time high, Republican lawmakers from agricultural states are publicly urging the Trump administration to ban diesel exports—to alleviate the fuel-cost burden borne by farmers and truck drivers. On Monday, U.S. retail diesel prices climbed to a record $6.51 per gallon—up more than 70% since February, before the outbreak of the Iran war. Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa directly urged Trump on social media platform X to suspend diesel exports, writing in all capital letters: HIGH DIESEL PRICES ARE KILLING FARM INCOME. Several other Iowa House members followed suit the same day, calling on the White House to “stop the bleeding” through measures including an export ban, suspension of fuel taxes, and financial assistance to affected businesses. The White House has categorically rejected this proposal. A White House official stated, “The administration is not currently considering an export ban or export restrictions,” citing Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s position—that such a ban would be worth considering only if it demonstrably lowered prices, “but it does not.” Energy consultancy Rapidan Energy forecasts a 35% probability that the White House will implement an export ban. Legislative action begins to take shape At the congressional level, calls for an export ban have escalated from individual statements into concrete legislative proposals. U.S. Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills: one would immediately prohibit diesel exports until January 2027; the other would establish a price-trigger mechanism—automatically activating an export ban whenever the national average diesel price exceeds $5.00 per gallon, and maintaining it until prices fall below $4.50. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week that he remains open to “exploring” an export ban, adding: If we have sufficient domestic supply while still exporting, that could be one way to address the problem. Representative Ashley Hinson called for deploying “every available option,” including suspending diesel exports and establishing a diesel relief program.

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