## Latest Developments: Iran Situation (Day 38)

- **11:55**: Israel issued an alert over additional Iranian missile launches. - **12:10**: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran Province killed six children. - **12:20**: The UAE stated it was responding to missile threats. - **12:25**: Iran strongly condemned the U.S.-Israeli coalition’s attack on its heavy-water facility. - **12:35**: Fifteen locations in central Israel were struck. - **12:55**: A Filipino Catholic leader urged Americans to halt Trump’s war. - **13:05**: Iraq urged customers to submit oil loading plans following exemptions granted in the Strait of Hormuz. - **13:15**: Iran’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, criticized Trump’s “vulgar remarks,” stating Iran would defend its national security. - **13:20**: Israel bombed southern Lebanon. - **13:25**: Saudi Arabia shot down two drones. - **13:30**: The UAE responded to attacks targeting telecom companies. - **13:32**: The Israeli military intercepted missiles launched by Iran toward southern Israel. - **13:40**: Israeli forces killed a teenager and detained three others in the occupied West Bank. - **13:50**: The death toll from the latest U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran rose to 34. - **14:00**: Escalating conflict: another Iranian university came under attack, killing dozens. - **14:05**: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed four people. - **14:10**: New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Washington to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. - **14:20**: Iran executed a man convicted of attempting to storm a military facility; two other men linked to January’s events had been executed the previous day. - **14:30**: Australia’s energy minister stated that fuel supplies for May have been secured. - **14:40**: Kuwait is developing contingency plans amid growing concerns over further escalation (reported and analyzed by journalists, scholars, or experts). - **14:45**: Israel bombed another town in southern Lebanon. - **14:55**: Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces reported that U.S.-Israeli airstrikes hit two bases. - **15:00**: Civilian casualties in Lebanon continue to mount as Israeli strikes persist. - **15:05**: According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian authorities said air defense units shot down a U.S.-Israeli drone in Lorestan Province in western Iran. - **15:10**: Democratic Congresswoman Yasmin Anasari—of Iranian descent—condemned the reported explosion at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran. - **15:30**: Eight hospitals in Tehran have evacuated staff since the outbreak of hostilities. - **15:34**: Northern Kuwait was struck by Iranian missiles, injuring six people. - **15:40**: Iran intensified missile attacks against Israel (reported and analyzed by journalists, scholars, or experts). - **15:50**: Qatar’s Prime Minister called for resolving the Middle East conflict “through peaceful means”.

Geopolitical Impact on Chemical Commodities and Inventory Disputes over Lithium Carbonate—Commodities Are Undergoing an 'Extreme Tug-of-War Between Supply and Expectations'

On the morning of September 10, the main Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) crude oil futures contract continued its upward momentum, surging over 9% intraday to a high of RMB 791.6 per barrel. By midday closing, the gain had moderated to over 5.77%, settling at RMB 764.2 per barrel. Overseas markets surged in tandem. On September 9, Brent crude futures briefly broke above USD 100 per barrel—the first time since late July—and closed at USD 101.21, up 3.4%. WTI crude closed at USD 96.05, up 3.25%. Both contracts posted their highest closing levels since May 22. From their early-August lows, international oil prices have risen more than 26%. This is no mild rally. Since early September, Brent crude has posted nine consecutive days of gains, with cumulative gains of roughly 10%. Year-to-date, Brent has risen over 60% and has breached the USD 100 threshold three times. Why did crude explode at this juncture? How much supply has actually been disrupted? Is the USD 100 price level driven by genuine supply-demand deficits—or merely short-term geopolitical sentiment? This article dissects the current state of the crude market. II. Geopolitics: From ‘Choking Off Supply’ to ‘Tanker Warfare’ The most immediate catalyst behind this oil price surge is the sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. On September 8, U.S. Central Command announced that, following an Iranian attack on a U.S. naval vessel, U.S. forces had destroyed five Iranian tankers that day—four near the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil hub. U.S. forces had ordered all crew to abandon ship prior to the strike. Iran’s retaliation was equally forceful. On September 9, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy declared it had targeted two U.S. warships and eight tankers linked to the United States, plus ten vessels violating Iranian-declared ‘exclusion zones’ in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC also claimed successful strikes against U.S. Navy destroyers DDG-119 and DDG-53, inflicting ‘severe damage.’ The conflict is no longer confined to the U.S. and Iran. On September 8, Houthi forces attacked four cities in southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people and igniting fires at petroleum facilities—marking a dramatic escalation in a conflict already ongoing for six months. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy confirmed that multiple energy and public infrastructure facilities in the south sustained damage, with some operations temporarily suspended. The nature of the conflict has shifted. Previously, markets focused on whether the Strait of Hormuz remained ‘open or closed.’ Now, the contest has evolved into a ‘shipping war’ over control of the strait—and is spilling over into Saudi territory and the Red Sea. Repeated U.S. strikes on tankers aim to cut off Iran’s oil revenues; Iran, in turn, targets vessels linked to the U.S. to demonstrate de facto control over the strait. Both sides are striking directly at ‘oil’—meaning energy supply chains themselves have become a battlefield. III. The Real Flow Through Hormuz: ‘Open’ in Name Only Understanding oil prices hinges not on whether the strait is ‘open,’ but on how much oil actually flows through it each day. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on September 10 that crude oil throughput via the Strait of Hormuz stood at ‘slightly below 11 million barrels per day,’ with an additional 3–5 million barrels per day transported via pipelines.

Australia's Energy Minister to Visit Saudi Arabia as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Sep 14, 2026

Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen plans to visit Saudi Arabia to secure fuel supplies amid escalating Middle East tensions threatening global oil exports. Australia imports 84% of its petroleum demand and seeks to mitigate disruptions following attacks on infrastructure.

reuters

2026-09-14

Australia's Energy Minister to Visit Saudi Arabia as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Australia's Energy Minister to Visit Saudi Arabia as Middle East Conflict Escalates

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