Why is oil trading below $100 despite severe disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and warnings of imminent global oil shortages by mid-June?

The article states that Brent crude is 'well under $100, even after rising 2.5% today to $93.40' despite 'shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain[ing] at a trickle' — with only eight vessels outbound on May 30, just two of them tankers, versus a pre-war daily average of '136 or so' — and despite commodity analysts having 'for some time been warning that mid-June would be when global oil inventories would be so run down that actual shortages would emerge.' The implied explanation in the text is investor attention has shifted decisively away from oil and geopolitical risk toward AI-driven tech gains, as evidenced by surging Asian equity markets and export data — making oil price action secondary to AI sentiment.

What evidence does the article provide that the AI boom is currently dominating investor focus in Asian markets — and how is it indirectly supporting U.S. fiscal policy?

The article cites concrete market and trade data: South Korea's main index rose 28% in May, Taiwan's index added 15%, and the Nikkei gained 12%; Samsung Electronics surged 10% on Monday alone amid shipments of new high-speed chips; South Korea's total exports jumped 53% year-on-year to nearly $88 billion in May, with semiconductor exports up 169% and computer exports up 291%. Crucially, the article notes that 'the Korean won is not far from all-time lows, suggesting Korea's dollar earnings are staying in dollars and not being converted,' and adds that 'presumably much of that is held in Treasury paper, so the AI boom is indirectly helping the U.S. administration fund its massive budget deficit.'

Morning Bid: Who Needs Oil When There's AI to Buy?

May 31, 2026

Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf threaten oil supplies, keeping Brent near $93 despite inventory warnings, while Asian markets surge driven by an AI chip boom led by Samsung and Nvidia.