Methanol prices remain closely linked to coal prices.

Based on market performance over recent years, the correlation between China’s methanol prices and thermal coal prices has continuously strengthened: the correlation coefficient stood at only 0.34 in 2019, reached a moderate level (~0.56) in 2020, and rose to a high level (~0.88) this year. Figure 1: Relationship among China’s methanol production cost, profitability, and coal prices According to data from Longzhong Information, China’s total methanol production capacity currently stands at approximately 96.44 million tons, of which 88.64% is coal-based. Over the past three years, coal’s share in methanol production costs has steadily increased—from 27–29% in 2019 to 28–40% currently. With coal prices hitting record highs this year, methanol market prices have been significantly affected, drawing heightened industry attention and causing pronounced fluctuations in methanol producers’ profits—resulting in a moderate negative correlation between coal prices and methanol profitability this year. Historically, when coal prices remained below RMB 500/ton, most methanol producers operated profitably, and coal and methanol prices exhibited moderate-to-low positive correlation. Once coal prices exceeded RMB 500/ton, methanol producers’ profit margins began compressing, and the correlation between coal and methanol prices strengthened. This year, methanol producers incurred losses for extended periods, reflecting a strong positive correlation between coal and methanol prices. Starting mid-March, rising coal prices triggered a decline in methanol producers’ profitability. When coal prices surpassed RMB 700/ton, methanol producers entered loss-making territory; When coal prices exceeded RMB 900/ton, methanol producers resumed profitability.

Chemical sector faces widespread losses—but this product surged 9%; are there still opportunities in the market?

According to Youliao Network, current acrylonitrile plant operating rates remain low, with several enterprises recently conducting scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Per Longzhong Information, domestic acrylonitrile operating rates hover around 70%. Anqing Petrochemical’s 210,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance starting late October for 60 days; Keru’er’s 260,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit plans to undergo maintenance beginning early November. Chinese Acrylonitrile Producer Quotes and Plant Updates (October 26, 2022) On the Youliao Network platform, current acrylonitrile quotations range from RMB 9,000 to 14,500 per ton; however, most producers have suspended formal quotations, with actual transaction prices negotiated case-by-case. Source of screenshot: Youliao Network How much longer can acrylonitrile prices rise? According to Zouchuang Information, downstream demand shows improvement: acrylic fiber (acrylic) plants have raised operating loads to slightly above 70%, up more than 20 percentage points versus September, significantly boosting acrylonitrile consumption and reinforcing producers’ resolve to maintain or raise prices. As of October 25, acrylonitrile prices provided strong support to the acrylic fiber sector. Some market participants hold bullish sentiment, though leading enterprises maintain stable pricing, keeping overall market prices relatively steady. In the East China region, reference prices stand at RMB 15,900–16,400/ton for 1.5D/3D acrylic staple fiber; RMB 15,600–16,300/ton for 3D acrylic tow; and ~RMB 17,200/ton for 3D acrylic top. He He, analyst at Youliao Network, notes that current industry inventory levels are low, while downstream acrylic fiber operating loads have risen markedly—indicating robust overall demand. Supply is expected to remain relatively tight going forward, supporting continued upward price adjustments by producers. However, a senior executive at a chemical trading company told Youliao Network that, with winter approaching, downstream customers are purchasing strictly based on immediate needs—suggesting future price increases will likely be modest and stable. —02— Opportunity exists! Focus on oversold commodities. Youliao Network observes that the recent acrylonitrile price surge was not accidental but followed a roller-coaster pattern. In mid-August, acrylonitrile prices in Shandong province fell to RMB 8,550/ton—the lowest level in two years—causing evident losses for producers, prompting increased maintenance shutdowns and load reductions, ultimately triggering a bottoming-out rebound. Source: Longzhong Information By September, industry-wide acrylonitrile operating rates had slipped to ~64%, nearing the year’s lowest point. Meanwhile, downstream ABS and acrylamide plants maintained relatively stable operations, sustaining the upward momentum in acrylonitrile prices. Entering October, operating loads at Sinopec’s Jiangsu Sirbon and Jilin Petrochemical acrylonitrile units rose slightly, lifting the industry’s overall operating rate above 70%. Additionally, a major Northeast acrylic fiber producer resumed normal operations at the end of September, while operating loads at the other two key downstream sectors remained stable—maintaining fundamental support for acrylonitrile. Consequently, producer quotations continued rising. As of now, the delivered price for acrylonitrile in Shandong stands at RMB 10,800–10,900/ton—a RMB 900/ton increase (9%) since late September. Sources: Zouchuang Information, Youliao Network Clearly, oversold commodities—and products whose factory prices have persistently remained below production cost—present upside potential when fundamentals strengthen. Youliao Network analysis reveals that acetic acid and methanol currently operate at production losses.

Chemanol Narrows Q2 Net Loss Driven by Higher Methanol Prices

Sep 8, 2026

Chemanol narrowed its Q2 net loss driven by a 42% rise in average selling prices, offsetting a 31% volume decline amid supply chain disruptions. The group faces material uncertainties regarding its ability to continue as a going concern due to legal proceedings.

icis

2026-09-08

Chemanol Narrows Q2 Net Loss Driven by Higher Methanol Prices

Chemanol Narrows Q2 Net Loss Driven by Higher Methanol Prices

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