According to Wood Mackenzie's report, what are the three conflict scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz and their respective impacts on global oil prices and GDP growth?

Wood Mackenzie's report outlines three scenarios: (1) Rapid ceasefire — Strait resumes navigation in June, Brent crude falls to $80/bbl by year-end and $65/bbl in 2027; global GDP growth dips from 3% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, with only the Middle East entering recession. (2) Summer reconciliation — Strait remains constrained until September; global GDP growth falls below 2% in 2026, causing a mild, lasting economic dent. (3) Prolonged disruption — Strait largely closed for most of the year; Brent crude nears $200/bbl by end-2026, global oil demand drops by 6 million bpd in H2 2026, and global GDP contracts by 0.4%, marking the third global economic downturn this century.

What does Wood Mackenzie identify as the single greatest energy market risk in recent decades, and what scale of energy supply is currently affected by the Gulf crisis?

Wood Mackenzie identifies 'long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz' as 'the greatest risk facing the global energy market in recent decades.' Currently, over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate production in the Gulf region is forced offline, and more than 80 million tonnes of LNG annually cannot be exported — representing 20% of global LNG trade.

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Wood Mackenzie Simulates Three Scenarios for Middle East Conflict Impact on Energy

Jun 8, 2026

Wood Mackenzie released a report forecasting three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz conflict, predicting potential oil price spikes up to $200/barrel and global economic contraction if shipping remains blocked long-term.

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