In-depth analysis of the entire PVC value chain: nine questions and answers revealing the market logic for 2026

Hard products related to real estate account for 47.8% of total demand (31.2% for pipes and profiles linked to new construction starts; 16.6% for completion-related supporting infrastructure under the 'guaranteed delivery' policy). Infrastructure pipeline networks and agricultural water conservancy pipes account for 17.5%. Soft products—including films, cables, and artificial leather—collectively account for 34.7%. Hard products are closely tied to real estate market vitality, whereas soft products maintain resilience through daily-use applications, packaging, and exports—this is the root cause of the so-called 'dual-track' market dynamic ('ice and fire'). Real estate sector data: From January to May 2026, nationwide cumulative newly started floor area of commercial housing declined by 22.5% year-on-year. Cumulative completed floor area fell by 13.1% year-on-year. Persistent sharp declines in new construction starts have directly suppressed order volumes for interior piping and window/door profiles. Although the 'guaranteed delivery' policy has stimulated demand for project completions, this demand stems mainly from finishing existing projects—not from new incremental orders—thus failing to trigger concentrated restocking across downstream manufacturing plants. Downstream product plant utilization rates (as of late May, based on research by Wuzhong Zhongda): Overall PVC downstream product utilization rate stood at 41.94%, down 1.09 percentage points month-on-month—within the historically low range for the same period over the past three years. Rigid profile utilization rate: 40.87%; water supply & drainage pipe utilization rate: 34.6%—pipes are most severely impacted by the real estate downturn. Soft products: packaging film utilization rate: 50.36%. June outlook: With southern China entering its high-temperature, rainy off-season, outdoor construction activities will be hindered. Utilization rates for pipes are expected to decline to 30.5–32% by month-end, while rigid profile utilization is projected to fall to around 38%. Demand summary: Year-on-year growth of 19.2% in the implementation of aging pipeline renovation projects and high-standard farmland water conservancy initiatives provides stable baseline support; domestic and export orders for soft products remain steady. However, persistently weakening new construction starts in real estate continue to weigh most heavily on demand across all categories—resulting in pronounced structural divergence and insufficient overall incremental demand. Q5: How is PVC distributed nationwide? Why does the north–south production–consumption mismatch determine spot price differentials? A: The distribution pattern of PVC directly shapes futures pricing logic. Domestic logistics flow: Northwest-originated PVC is shipped via rail trunk lines to major consumption hubs—Shandong, Jiangsu/Zhejiang/Shanghai, and Guangdong—with short-haul road transport supplementing fragmented regional demand. PVC futures delivery warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, with deliverable grade being national standard SG5 PVC. Thus, futures prices are anchored to spot prices in southeastern consumption markets. Foreign trade import/export data (Customs + Wuzhong Zhongda statistics for 2026): In April 2026, China’s pure PVC powder exports reached 284,700 tons; cumulative exports from January to April totaled 1,701,650 tons, up 27.31% year-on-year. In April 2026, PVC imports amounted to 16,100 tons; cumulative imports from January to April totaled 56,893 tons, down 33.54% year-on-year. This week’s enterprise sample export order volume declined 28.11% month-on-month (to 23,840 tons); delivery volume dropped 16.29% month-on-month (to 44,200 tons); backlog stood at 124,700 tons. India market: In March 2026, India’s PVC imports totaled 317,600 tons, of which Chinese-sourced PVC accounted for 56.78%. From January to March, India’s cumulative PVC imports reached 734,800 tons, down 6.16% year-on-year. India reduced its PVC import tariff from 7.5% to 0%, effective for a three-month preferential period. In June, Southeast Asia gradually enters the rainy season, slowing outdoor construction activity; newly signed overseas export orders edged down month-on-month, signaling a marginal weakening of external demand.

How is PVC (polyvinyl chloride) transported? What is the approximate market price of polyvinyl chloride, and how volatile is it?

I. Import Procedures 1. Qualification Verification: Confirm that the importing enterprise holds a Dangerous Chemicals Business License (applicable to industrial-grade PVC). 2. Commodity Classification: Determine the HS code (typically 39041090 for primary-form polyvinyl chloride). 3. Trade Negotiation: Contracts must explicitly specify technical parameters such as residual vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) content and plasticizer content. 4. Transportation Control: For sea freight, a Certificate of Suitability for Carriage of Dangerous Goods must be provided (compliant with the IMDG Code). 5. Documentation Preparation: ・Certificate of Origin (e.g., FORM E for ASEAN countries, enabling zero-tariff treatment); ・Chinese-language Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS), compliant with GB/T 16483–2008; ・Quality Inspection Report, including test data on VCM monomer residue; ・Pre-shipment Inspection Certificate (mandatory for PVC imported into China). 6. Customs Declaration: ・Submit electronic declarations via the 'Single Window' platform; ・Attach the 'Declaration of Conformity for Importers of Hazardous Chemicals'. 7. On-site Inspection: 100% port inspection is mandatory (Announcement No. 129 of the General Administration of Customs, 2021). II. Tax and Duty Details 1. Base Tariff Rates: ・Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Tariff: 6.5% (HS code 39041090); ・Value-Added Tax (VAT): 13%. 2. Special Tariffs: ・Anti-dumping Duties: Imposed on PVC originating from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, ranging from 6.5% to 76.8% (MOFCOM Announcement No. 7, 2023); ・Consumption Tax: An additional 5% applies specifically to chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC).

ICIS launches Vietnam PVC spot import price assessment

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ICIS launched a new CFR Vietnam PVC spot price assessment on September 18 to enhance market transparency, acknowledging Vietnam's position as the world's second-largest PVC importer driven by infrastructure and flooring demand.

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ICIS launches Vietnam PVC spot import price assessment

ICIS launches Vietnam PVC spot import price assessment

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