What economic impact does EY forecast for the UK if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until early to mid-2027?

EY forecasts that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until early to mid-2027, UK economic growth this year will slow to 0.5% and the economy will shrink by 0.2% in 2027, while inflation is likely to rise to 6.4% by the end of 2026.

What does EY predict for UK growth and inflation under the scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of September?

EY predicts UK growth of 0.8% in 2024 (slightly revised up from 0.9%) and 1.2% in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of September, with inflation peaking at a lower level of 3.5% this year.

UK faces recession if Strait of Hormuz stays closed, forecaster warns

Aug 2, 2026

EY warns the UK economy risks recession in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially driving inflation to 6.4% due to higher oil and gas prices.

reuters

2026-08-02

UK faces recession if Strait of Hormuz stays closed, forecaster warns

UK faces recession if Strait of Hormuz stays closed, forecaster warns

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