What do ECB survey results indicate about firms' expectations for wage growth and selling price increases over the next 12 months?

The ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises shows that firms expect wage growth to ease to 2.5% over the next 12 months, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter, and selling prices to rise by 3.2%, down from 3.5% three months earlier. These declines signal moderating wage demands and more restrained pricing power, suggesting that the recent energy-driven inflation surge has not yet triggered broad-based second-round effects on wages or consumer prices.

How have firms' inflation expectations evolved across different time horizons according to the ECB survey?

Firms' inflation expectations remained broadly unchanged at 3.0% for both one-year and three-year horizons, while the five-year expectation edged up slightly to 3.1% from 3.0% three months earlier — indicating stable near- and medium-term outlooks but a modest uptick in longer-term inflation expectations.

ECB Survey Sees Moderating Wage Demands, Selling Price Growth

Jul 20, 2026

An ECB survey reveals Euro zone firms expect moderate price and wage growth, citing energy costs as a driver, which influences monetary policy decisions amidst high inflation.

reuters

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