Most corporate executives predict global M&A activity in 2026 will exceed that of 2025: the total value in the first half of the year has already reached $2.85 trillion.

Original content. First published on WeChat Official Account: The Blue Stars. This article is original content by "The Blue Stars". "The Blue Stars" is a brand under "Guava Fragrance". In the first half of 2026, the global M&A transaction value reached $2.85 trillion—up a robust 50% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2025—marking the strongest start to a year since records began in 1980. NYC According to a report jointly released by law firm Norton Rose Fulbright and M&A intelligence provider Mergermarket, despite ongoing regulatory uncertainty clouding the dealmaking landscape, over half of global corporate leaders expect M&A activity in 2026 to increase. The report, titled "Global M&A Trends and Risks 2026", reveals that 52% of executives anticipate transaction volume this year will surpass 2025 levels, with 20% expecting a significant increase. By contrast, in the 2025 survey, only 38% of respondents expected M&A activity to rise. Global M&A trends and risks 2026 Respondents expect technology-related deals to lead cross-border M&A growth in 2026, with AI serving as the key driver behind these opportunities. Nearly one-quarter (24%) of respondents indicated they are actively seeking to acquire companies that heavily deploy AI technologies—a figure rising to 38% among private equity respondents. Moreover, private equity is viewed as a major catalyst for heightened deal activity in 2026. Forty-eight percent of respondents ranked it alongside industry consolidation (45%) and divestiture of non-core assets (37%) as one of the top three drivers of new transaction activity. A vast majority of respondents (86%) also noted that private credit will remain a critical source of M&A financing over the next two years; meanwhile, 19% expect such financing to become more readily available. Global M&A trends and risks 2026 Key findings At the same time, 48% of respondents believe U.S. deal activity will see significant growth in 2026, while 43% anticipate similar momentum in Europe. For insights into the strong M&A performance of U.S. BigLaw firms in the first half of 2026, see the article: "After posting a record-breaking annual revenue of $10.6 billion, Kirkland & Ellis tops the global M&A league table." In actual figures, Q2 2026 saw transaction value reach $1.6 trillion—up 31% from Q1 2026—and marked the fourth consecutive quarter exceeding $1 trillion, setting a new record as the largest single-quarter global M&A volume ever recorded. However, the total number of deals announced in the first half of 2026 exceeded 24,500—down 9% year-on-year and the lowest level in six years. (Note: Deal count declined while average deal size surged significantly.)

Mid-Year Review and Outlook Report for China’s M&A Market in 2026

In the first half of 2026, China’s M&A market recorded 7,316 deals—an increase of nearly 30% year-on-year—with a total transaction value of $241.6 billion, surging 56% year-on-year. PwC’s report segments the market into three categories: strategic investor deals declined slightly by 7% in volume but rose nearly 40% in value; financial investor deals increased by nearly 50% in volume and 85% in value year-on-year; and outbound M&A by Chinese enterprises saw reduced activity but soared 62% in total value year-on-year. There were 27 mega-deals (i.e., transactions valued at over $1 billion), roughly unchanged from last year: 14 occurred domestically and were strategic investments, eight of which were led by state-owned entities. Ten of the mega-deals were in high-tech sectors—concentrated in AI, memory, and semiconductors. Domestic strategic M&A showed pronounced sectoral divergence. High-tech sector transaction value grew nearly twofold year-on-year, while energy sector value doubled, buoyed by large-scale SOE restructuring. Top three most active sectors by deal volume: high-tech, industrial goods, and financial services. Private equity fund deals totaled 1,210, with a transaction value of $94.8 billion; high-tech, industrial goods, and healthcare were the top three target sectors—with over 600 high-tech companies receiving funding. Venture capital fund deals reached 4,466—the highest on record—with high-tech accounting for 46%; the top three sectors combined accounted for 77% of all VC deals. Exit activity declined 9% year-on-year: M&A exits accounted for 70% of all exits but fell 16% in volume; IPO exits rebounded strongly, rising 50%, with nearly half listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

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