Why does Dolenc say the ECB might delay its next interest rate decision until September?

Dolenc states that the 'unexpectedly quick retreat in energy prices' has created a more benign energy market environment than expected just weeks ago, easing pressure on the ECB to act immediately; he explains that if energy prices remain at current levels, the bank 'could afford to wait until fresh projections in September to decide on the appropriate policy calibration.'

What conditions would make it possible for the ECB to avoid further policy tightening, according to Dolenc?

Dolenc says a scenario where no further tightening is needed 'could be possible if energy prices were to decline further, second-round effects failed to materialize, and some of the existing indirect effects of the recent energy shock gradually dissipated'—but he explicitly adds that 'this is not my baseline scenario,' citing the unresolved conflict and expected ongoing energy price volatility.

Lower Oil Prices Ease Pressure on ECB to Act, Dolenc Says

Jun 30, 2026

Slovenian central bank governor Primoz Dolenc indicated that falling energy prices reduce pressure on the ECB to raise interest rates soon. Policymakers might wait until September for new projections as current oil pricing stays below prior high-cost assumptions.

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Lower Oil Prices Ease Pressure on ECB to Act, Dolenc Says

Lower Oil Prices Ease Pressure on ECB to Act, Dolenc Says

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