Trump claimed the U.S. has gained 'majority control' over Venezuela’s oil reserves—exceeding 65 billion barrels—with no cost to American taxpayers. How should we view this claim?

Over the past two months, major oil companies in Europe and the U.S. have begun hiring personnel for projects in Venezuela. Due to instability in the Gulf region, a large number of British and American engineers working there resigned in March. Most of these individuals are now joining project teams in Venezuela—especially those focused on heavy oil and pipeline operations. I believe Venezuela’s oil projects are already largely ready in terms of equipment, human resources, and funding—at least partially so. The entire initiative appears to have entered its initial launch phase. Why do I say 'I believe', rather than speak with certainty? Because recruitment for Venezuela-related projects exhibits two notable features: 1. A strict 'America First' hiring policy: Only U.S. citizens—or Latin American nationals who previously worked for U.S. oil companies—are currently being recruited. Non-U.S. nationals like myself are excluded. Moreover, confidentiality agreements appear broader than usual; even American engineers I know are reluctant to discuss Venezuela-related developments. 2. Unattractive compensation. Although it is an overseas assignment, salaries and benefits are equivalent to those offered domestically in the U.S.—with no additional allowances whatsoever.

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However, starting in 2026, the situation began to shift. After Maduro’s arrest by U.S. authorities and Delcy Rodríguez’s appointment as interim president, U.S.–Venezuela relations were rapidly restructured. In the oil sector specifically, Venezuela revised its petroleum law to allow greater private-sector participation under new production-sharing models. Meanwhile, the Trump administration placed oil at the core of its Venezuela strategy—simultaneously advancing sanctions adjustments and contractual reforms while urging U.S. energy firms to invest approximately $100 billion locally. This has transformed Venezuela’s oil industry into a market undergoing institutional repricing. A country long shunned by global capital due to years of sanctions and economic crisis, once reopened, could offer returns far exceeding those of mature markets. Ehrsam clearly accepted this risk in anticipation of such potential upside. Together with Manuel Iribarren—a Stanford-educated Venezuelan—he co-founded Primavera earlier this year. In February, the two traveled to Venezuela to seek investment opportunities. Following meetings with Venezuelan leaders and senior executives of PDVSA, they settled most favorably on high-risk investments in oil and natural gas—precisely the kind of asymmetric payoff structure familiar to venture capitalists, and thus especially appealing to Ehrsam. Rather than hunting for 10% undervaluation in a stable, transparent market, this approach entails accepting a high probability of failure in a territory where most investors dare not tread—betting instead on substantial asset revaluation following institutional change. Yet the waters promising such outsized returns run exceptionally deep—and not everyone is willing to wade in. Indeed, Trump had urged energy giants including ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Continental Resources (led by oil billionaire Harold Hamm) to commit $100 billion—but these established players have remained conspicuously inactive. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, both deeply entrenched in Venezuela during the Chávez era, suffered asset nationalizations—an experience that continues to color their sensitivity toward property rights, arbitration mechanisms, and whether future governments will honor current contracts. That said, not all oil majors share such caution. Chevron—which has operated in Venezuela for decades—announced in early September that it plans to invest $7 billion in Venezuelan oilfields over the next five years, aiming to raise its output there to roughly 600,000 barrels per day. According to insiders, Chevron’s newly formed joint venture with PDVSA is expected to feature highly favorable contractual terms—terms believed to significantly reduce the risks associated with further investment in the country. 'Chaotic land grabs benefit no one.' Alongside legacy energy firms like Chevron, a new wave of smaller, more risk-tolerant independent oil & gas companies—and fresh capital—has also emerged in this latest opening of Venezuela’s oil sector. Though diverse in background, these newcomers share one conspicuous trait: varying degrees of connection to Trump and his political network.

Venezuela Oilfield Hiring Picks Up as First Wave of Investment Builds

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Major oil service firms like Weatherford and Baker Hughes are hiring in Venezuela amid a US-backed oil revival plan. Equipment is returning to boost crude output from 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels per day by late 2027.

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Venezuela Oilfield Hiring Picks Up as First Wave of Investment Builds

Venezuela Oilfield Hiring Picks Up as First Wave of Investment Builds

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