Canadian Prime Minister Carney will visit China from the 14th to the 17th—what information is worth watching?

This reflects Mr. Carney’s determination to pursue strategic autonomy amid complex domestic and external pressures. He must balance the interests—and growing separatist tendencies—of resource-rich provinces like Alberta, while also addressing industrial-protection demands from provinces such as Ontario. This issue is extremely delicate, where one move can trigger cascading consequences. Meanwhile, Alberta’s independence referendum has entered its final countdown. On December 23, the province’s electoral agency formally approved a referendum proposal posing the direct question: “Do you agree that Alberta should cease to be part of Canada and become an independent country?” Voters need only answer “Yes” or “No.” This proposal marks the first time the word “independence” has appeared in official procedure using such unambiguous language—signaling that, since the Quebec sovereignty movement, Canada now faces one of its most consequential secessionist challenges entering an operational phase. The provincial electoral agency announced that the proposer—“Alberta Prosperity Project,” led by its CEO Mitch Sylvester—must appoint a financial officer by early January next year before officially launching signature collection. More sensitively, this initiative is linked to the provincial government: Sylvester himself serves as chair of the local chapter of the United Conservative Party—the same party led by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. This indicates that the secessionist movement is connected to senior levels of the provincial government—not merely the action of fringe groups. Under regulations, Sylvester must collect nearly 178,000 signatures within four months. Once achieved, this question concerning Canada’s national integrity will be formally submitted to a province-wide referendum. Earlier this month, the Smith administration revised rules governing citizen-initiated referendums. The new rules effectively nullify judicial constitutional review, removing prior legal barriers and allowing Sylvester to resubmit his application free of charge. Within just a few weeks—from judicial review being blocked, to rule revisions, to formal approval of the referendum question—the pace has been astonishing, raising questions about whether the provincial government is actively clearing the path for secession. Moreover, tensions over Greenland have recently intensified, and MAGA-aligned forces are indeed visible behind Alberta’s independence push. With the referendum scheduled for next year, the Trump administration is highly likely to intervene directly. The U.S. strategy for absorbing Canada would likely rely on a “salami-slicing” tactic—first enabling certain Canadian provinces or regions to declare independence, then facilitating their accession into the United States, thereby repeating history with Mexico. Currently, China is preparing to resume and increase imports of Canadian agricultural products; an independent Alberta would likewise benefit. The Carney government is eager to conclude a trade and economic agreement with Beijing—and Alberta’s internal instability is a key driver behind this urgency. Conversely, Ontario’s Premier expressed dissatisfaction with Chinese electric vehicle imports, criticizing Carney for failing to consult Canada’s domestic auto industry beforehand—and warning that Trump would view this unfavorably. Reviewing related online commentary from Canadian netizens reveals generally positive reactions, including notable affirmation and even praise for China. China and Canada have jointly issued a communique. China is likely preparing to implement visa-free travel for Canadians; notably, after New Zealand’s Prime Minister visited China last year, no such visa exemption has yet been extended to New Zealanders. Previously, visa exemptions were generally withheld from all Five Eyes countries. Additionally, the China-Canada agreement will advance bilateral currency swap arrangements. Within the Five Eyes alliance, diverging interests have already emerged following Trump’s return to power.

(2025.05.02) How should we view the increasingly evident signs that Alberta, Canada, is about to hold an independence referendum?

From a strictly legal perspective, Alberta’s successful secession is virtually impossible. In 2000, the federal Liberal government under then-Prime Minister Jean Chrétien passed the Clarity Act in Parliament, stipulating that if any province seeks independence or secession from Canada, the referendum question must first be approved by Parliament; second, negotiations must be held with other provinces and Indigenous peoples; and finally, a formal referendum may be held—each step requiring a two-thirds majority vote for validity. A simple majority is legally insufficient. Moreover, public opinion polls indicate only 20–30% of Albertans genuinely support independence; even in a vote, only 15–16% would likely cast ballots in favor. Meanwhile, opponents of the independence referendum have collected over 430,000 signatures, and multiple Indigenous nations have filed lawsuits emphasizing that Alberta’s secession cannot proceed without their consent. Canada’s current Prime Minister Carney has warned against replicating the Brexit referendum scenario in Canada. To placate Alberta, Carney reached an agreement with Premier Danielle Smith: the federal government will jointly advance construction of a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, diversifying Alberta’s oil export markets and reducing dependence on the U.S. Upon completion, the pipeline is expected to transport one million barrels per day. Notably, China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical has already signaled intent to become the largest buyer for the new pipeline—having previously purchased Canadian crude via the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline and shipped it back to China for refining at a rate of 800,000 barrels daily. However, Alberta has officially announced it will hold a preliminary referendum on October 19 this year, asking residents whether they support initiating the independence process. Though this vote itself will not directly determine secession, it could become a pivotal step toward full independence. In a recent report, Dr. McQueen—co-director of the Artificial Intelligence, Data & Conflict Centre at the University of Regina—explicitly warned that U.S. interference in Alberta’s independence movement is occurring openly, and even raised the possibility of coercive measures aimed at regime change in Canada. Alberta’s abundant resources attract intense U.S. interest. While Canada is globally renowned as an energy powerhouse, Alberta alone holds petroleum reserves equivalent to those of the entire country. According to statistics released by Alberta’s Energy Regulator, the province’s original oil sands deposits total 1.63 trillion barrels—capable of yielding 180 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil. At a production rate of 4.16 million barrels per day, these reserves could sustain extraction for over 700 years. Beyond oil, Alberta’s oil sands also yield asphalt and natural gas—reserves of which stand at 400 billion cubic meters and 32 trillion cubic meters respectively, rivaling Russia’s. Notably, Alberta’s agricultural strengths are equally impressive: it produces 45% of Canada’s barley, 30% of its wheat, and 3 million tonnes of canola annually—accounting for one-third of Canada’s total canola oil exports. Should Alberta successfully achieve independence and align with the U.S., America would gain complete control over North American energy resources—using them to sustain its hegemony—while Canada would suffer severe damage or even face federal disintegration.

With Alberta Vote Settled, Carney's Focus Turns Back to Global Stage

Oct 20, 2026

Prime Minister Mark Carney shifts focus to global trade following Alberta's unity vote, prioritizing an oil pipeline project and navigating US-EU trade talks amid tariff threats.

bloomberg

2026-10-19

Alberta Voters Reject Separation From Canada as Carney Wins

2026-10-20

With Alberta Vote Settled, Carney's Focus Turns Back to Global Stage

With Alberta Vote Settled, Carney's Focus Turns Back to Global Stage

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