Poland's Energy Outlook: Trends in 2026 and Beyond

According to the latest assessment by PSE, Poland’s power system faces significant supply shortage risks. Under the base scenario, potential shortages could total up to 50 hours by 2027, reflecting serious reliability challenges. Between 2024 and 2040, the expected loss of load—i.e., annual hours during which demand may exceed supply—will fluctuate but remain persistently concerning. As shown in Figure 13, the system could experience nearly 10 hours of annual shortage by 2030; no improvement is projected by 2035 (approximately 10.9 hours), and a new wave of instability is anticipated by 2040 (around 14.2 hours annually). [23] These persistent reliability issues underscore structural vulnerabilities in Poland’s current energy mix and highlight the urgent need for regulatory reform and strategic adjustments to energy policy. Nuclear power stands out as the most reliable long-term solution, capable of delivering stable baseload generation—critical to mitigating these risks and ensuring continuous system stability. Compared with other European countries, Poland remains heavily reliant on coal-fired generation and currently operates no nuclear capacity—a stark contrast with many neighboring countries (see Figure 14). While some nations—particularly Germany—began phasing out nuclear power in the 21st century, largely due to safety concerns following the Fukushima accident, nuclear energy is now experiencing a marked resurgence, driven primarily by renewed economic competitiveness and the urgent imperative to address climate change. Beyond energy security and climate benefits, nuclear development offers substantial economic advantages—including job creation—and leverages the skills and expertise of Polish enterprises. The Ministry of Energy (formerly the Ministry of Industry) reported that approximately 120 Polish companies have participated in international nuclear projects, and the Polish government expects domestic firms to secure over €12 billion—nearly 30% of the total investment—for Poland’s first nuclear power plant. [24] According to a November 2024 survey by the Polish Ministry of Energy, public support for nuclear power remains exceptionally high, with roughly 90% of Poles expressing support. This broad societal backing provides a solid foundation for advancing Poland’s nuclear ambitions. Poland’s Nuclear Development Plan Poland’s nuclear program aims to deploy 6–9 gigawatts of nuclear capacity using large-scale Generation III and III+ pressurized water reactors. Construction of Poland’s first nuclear power plant—located at Lubiatowo-Kopalino—is scheduled to begin in 2028, with reactors expected to enter commercial operation in 2036, 2037, and 2038, respectively. [25] For the second planned nuclear power plant, four potential sites are currently under evaluation (see Figure 15): Bełchatów and Konin as primary candidates, and existing Energa coal-fired plants in Kozienice and Połaniec as alternatives. The most advanced preparatory work is underway in Konin, led by a joint venture between PGE and ZE PAK. In January 2025, PGE reached an agreement to fully acquire ZE PAK’s shares in the dedicated special-purpose vehicle; as of September 2025, final agreement negotiations are still ongoing. Under preliminary planning, construction of the second nuclear power plant is expected to commence around 2032, with reactors scheduled to enter operation in 2040, 2041, and 2042, respectively.

Who Will Win the Race to Build Poland’s Nuclear Power Plants?

Poland’s 2040 Energy Policy clearly signals the government’s firm commitment to developing nuclear power. According to Poland’s Nuclear Power Development Program, commissioning of the first nuclear power plant is scheduled for 2033, with total investment projected to reach PLN 150 billion. Negotiations with nuclear technology vendors from the United States, South Korea, and France—covering both technical specifications and financing models—are now entering an intense, decisive phase. In June 2020, following President Andrzej Duda’s visit to the White House, numerous signs pointed to Poland’s preference for U.S. partnership. President Duda held discussions with then-U.S. President Donald Trump on the feasibility of cooperation in nuclear power plant construction. In October 2020, Piotr Naimski, Poland’s Plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure, and U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette signed a cooperation agreement committing Poland and the United States to jointly issue progress reports on the project within 18 months. Although the U.S. administration has since changed, the American side retains a first-mover advantage. Other competitors have not withdrawn and remain actively engaged in preparations. In early February, a French delegation visited Poland in the presence of French Minister for Foreign Trade Franck Riester and met with senior officials from Poland’s Ministry of Climate and Environment.

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