What was the euro-area inflation rate in July, and how did it compare to June and market expectations?

Euro-area inflation rose to an annual 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June, and aligned with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

What do ECB policymakers and economists indicate about the likelihood and timing of the next interest rate hike?

Economists and investors predict a September rate hike, with money markets pricing a 90% chance of a quarter-point increase; ECB officials including Gediminas Simkus and Peter Kazimir signaled strong likelihood or necessity of further tightening, while President Christine Lagarde declined to pre-commit but acknowledged ongoing uncertainty.

Euro-Area Inflation Strengthens as US-Iran Strikes Boost Oil

Jul 31, 2026

Euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, driven by a 10% surge in energy costs following US-Iran strikes that boosted oil prices. Consequently, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again in September amidst high uncertainty.

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Euro-Area Inflation Strengthens as US-Iran Strikes Boost Oil

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