Zhang Jing: Petrochemical Industry and Plastic Production | Ocean & Wetlands · Observations on Negotiations for the Global Plastics Pollution Treaty

This article is sourced from 'Ocean & Wetlands' (OceanWetlands): https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kr1JC7ARH2idNY20tf8G3A Above image: Plastic flowers epitomize the aesthetic of the industrial civilization era. Today, as plastic pollution has become a global environmental challenge, such an aesthetic is no longer sustainable. © Green Communications Team of China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation (CBCGDF) · CBCGDF Global Environmental Governance Team Ocean & Wetlands · Global Governance of Plastic Pollution Currently, global production of virgin plastic is at a historic high, and expansion by petrochemical enterprises is expected to drive growth over the coming decades. In 2023, global virgin plastic production amounted to approximately 400 million tonnes, with the majority manufactured using monomers—such as ethylene and propylene—derived from fossil fuels. By 2040, this figure could double to 800 million tonnes, primarily driven by rising demand for plastics in packaging, construction, and textiles. However, continued growth in virgin plastic production profoundly undermines the plastic circular economy: cheap virgin plastic suppresses market demand for recycled plastic and stifles the development of the recycling industry. Plastic sheeting at a construction site. Photo: Linda © Green Communications Team of Ocean & Wetlands Notably, national carbon-reduction policies under the Paris Agreement are prompting the petrochemical industry to diversify its production. The plastics sector has become one of the petrochemical industry’s key growth areas. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global plastic demand is projected to continue rising over the next decade—especially in emerging markets such as Asia and Africa. On a per capita basis, developed economies like the United States and Europe currently consume 20 times more plastic—and 10 times more fertilizer—than developing economies such as India and Indonesia. This highlights the enormous global growth potential.

OECD: 60% Global Plastic Waste Recycling Rate by 2060

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning that, without any intervention, global plastic consumption will nearly triple between 2019 and 2060—from 460 million tonnes to 1.231 billion tonnes—while plastic waste will increase proportionally, from 353 million tonnes to 1.014 billion tonnes. If coordinated global action is taken, the OECD estimates plastic waste would decline from the projected 1.014 billion tonnes to 679 million tonnes, raising the global recycling rate to 60%. Emerging economies in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to experience the fastest growth in plastic use. Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060 The OECD has released a preliminary version of its report, 'Global Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060'. Its analysis shows that plastic waste has already doubled over the past decade. Without bold action—including curbing demand, extending product lifespans, improving waste management, and enhancing recyclability—plastic pollution will escalate rapidly alongside population and income growth. The report estimates that by 2060, nearly two-thirds of plastic waste will originate from short-lived products such as packaging, low-cost goods, and textiles. All plastic use is projected to rise significantly by 2060. OECD experts forecast substantial increases in plastic waste generation in wealthy countries—particularly in the United States and Europe. By 2060, per capita plastic waste in developed countries is expected to reach 238 kg/year—three times the global average (77 kg). By 2060, roughly half of all global plastic waste will end up in open or unlined landfills; 20% will be incinerated; and only 17% will be recycled. An estimated 15% of plastic waste will pose threats to natural environments surrounding landfills. Although this represents a decline from the current level of 22%, it remains alarmingly high. —2— Global action would reduce plastic use and waste by one-third. Authorized by negotiators of the international treaty, the OECD is evaluating two action scenarios to reduce plastic waste, applying intensified measures across the entire plastic life cycle—including production, use, recycling, and disposal. The regional action policy scenario reflects differentiated participation across regions, with OECD countries setting more ambitious targets than non-OECD countries. The global action scenario explores a suite of extremely stringent policies aimed at reducing global plastic leakage to near-zero levels by 2060. Policies targeting different life-cycle stages can substantially reduce environmental plastic leakage, measured in millions of tonnes (Mt) per year—the change relative to the baseline scenario. Significantly increasing recycling rates requires coordinated global action to prevent plastic waste from leaking into the environment. Examples include the UN Environment Assembly’s mandate to develop a legally binding global agreement on plastic pollution; the G20’s ‘Osaka Blue Ocean Vision’; and voluntary industry initiatives. Compared with the ‘baseline’ scenario, global action could reduce plastic use and waste by approximately one-third: by 2060, plastic use would fall from 1.231 billion tonnes in the baseline scenario to 827 million tonnes.

Global plastics demand losing twin engines that drove growth for decades

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McKinsey and ICIS project global plastics demand growth slowing to 2-3% annually due to demographic shifts and middle-class saturation, with excess capacity persisting into the 2040s.

icis

2026-11-05

Global plastics demand losing twin engines that drove growth for decades

Global plastics demand losing twin engines that drove growth for decades

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