Global central bank annual meeting approaches; Powell may signal readiness to cut interest rates

The de-globalization shock triggered by Donald Trump’s policies; ultra-low interest rates, including $16.7 trillion in negative-yielding bonds; the president’s relentless attacks on the Federal Reserve; and rising risks of recession in both the U.S. and the global economy. Maury Obstfeld, former IMF chief economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said, “There are all sorts of risks.” Some of these risks—such as the risk of a hard Brexit in the UK—lie outside the U.S. and fall beyond the Fed’s control. Fed watchers expect Powell will take no action on Friday to dispel investors’ widespread expectation that the Fed will cut rates next month. But it remains unclear whether he will, as some traders hope, open the door to a 50-basis-point cut. Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, said a 50-basis-point cut in September “is certainly a possibility,” but added, “I don’t see it. The data don’t support it.” He estimates the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months at 40%–45%. *Mixed Signals* Nathan Sheets, a former Fed official, likened the economic dashboard facing Powell to a Christmas tree: some lights—such as the sharp drop in bond yields—are flashing red, signaling recession; others—like stable retail sales—are green—or perhaps yellow warning lights. On July 31, Powell described the Fed’s policy path as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” following its first rate cut in a decade. Sheets—who expects one or two more cuts—said he wouldn’t mind Powell repeating that phrase, but doubts investors would agree. Still, Sheets, now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, noted that the Fed chair would want to avoid fueling financial market pessimism—and prevent such sentiment from spreading further. *Nothing to Fear* Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, told Bloomberg Television on August 16: “We’re not worried about recession right now—except for worrying about recession.” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, described the Fed as being in a “lose-lose situation.” If it cuts rates while the domestic economy is performing well, it risks being accused of caving in to pressure from Trump and Wall Street. If it holds firm, financial market turmoil could ensue—and damage the economy. El-Erian added that, most importantly, investors are increasingly skeptical about central banks’ ability to stimulate growth after a decade of low, insufficiently inclusive expansion. “The evolution of the global economy lies far beyond the Fed’s purview,” wrote El-Erian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. “This is part of deeper, structural issues.” It’s the shock of de-globalization—but it has caught the attention of markets—and the Fed.

Efort, un company unprofitable for ten years, finds a 'fellow sufferer'

According to TianYanCha, Shengpu was founded in 2007, with Fu Jianyi and Liu Yan as its actual controllers. Through Shanghai Zhiqian Industrial Development Co., Ltd., the two indirectly hold 60.56% of the company’s equity. Shengpu primarily focuses on precision fluid control equipment and their core components. Its products are used in adhesive bonding processes across downstream manufacturing industries and serve as critical core equipment for customers building smart factories. In terms of application areas, photovoltaics (PV) and power batteries constitute Shengpu’s two major downstream markets. It has secured partnerships with most leading PV enterprises—including Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and JA Solar—as well as industry leaders in power batteries and automotive parts, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) and BYD. According to data disclosed in Shengpu’s later-submitted IPO prospectus, from 2019 through the first half of 2022, products sold into the PV sector accounted for 93.37%, 93.92%, 91.84%, and 90.87% of its revenue, respectively; those sold into the power battery sector accounted for 3.18%, 4.74%, 6.44%, and 8.19% of revenue, respectively. Fueled by robust demand in the PV market, Shengpu’s performance rose steadily year after year. Financial data show that from 2019 through the first half of 2022, Shengpu achieved revenues of RMB 126 million, RMB 177 million, RMB 264 million, and RMB 124 million, respectively; net profits were RMB 23 million, RMB 36 million, RMB 55 million, and RMB 24 million, respectively. Source: Shengpu IPO Prospectus At the time, the PV industry was booming, and strong financial performance prompted Shengpu to pursue an IPO. In June 2022, Shengpu’s IPO application—and listing on ChiNext—was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). It passed the review meeting smoothly on January 20, 2023, just one step away from entering the capital markets. Yet that final step was never taken. During the 20-month silent period following Shengpu’s approval at the review meeting, the PV industry plummeted from its peak. Overcapacity, price wars, and losses across the entire value chain forced once-aggressive component manufacturers—previously expanding production at great expense—to tighten their belts. The PV sector, which accounted for over 90% of Shengpu’s revenue, froze over. On September 28, 2024, Shengpu voluntarily withdrew its IPO application, abruptly ending its listing journey. The company offered no official explanation for the withdrawal, but the market understood the reasons well: First, its financial performance had likely fallen short of ChiNext’s listing threshold. In 2024, the company’s net profit declined from RMB 84.58 million to RMB 60.07 million; in the first three quarters of 2025, it further dropped to RMB 40.85 million—meaning its most recent full fiscal-year net profit may fail to meet ChiNext’s new requirement of “no less than RMB 60 million.” Second, the SZSE’s inquiry letter directly highlighted a key vulnerability: procurement concentration—purchases from core suppliers such as Graco and Ingersoll Rand once approached 50% of total procurement—and persistently declining gross margins—a problem that remains unresolved to this day. The cost of the failed IPO extends far beyond the shattered dream of listing. During Shengpu’s Series B financing round in 2021, actual controllers Fu Jianyi and Liu Yan signed a valuation adjustment mechanism (“betting agreement”) with investors—triggering a 6% annual simple interest obligation that has snowballed into an estimated RMB 161.94 million repurchase liability (calculated assuming full payment of the repurchase price by August 31, 2022). Legally, this repurchase obligation constitutes a personal debt of the company’s actual controllers.

Elkem earnings decline as challenging conditions persist

2 hours ago

Elkem ASA reported a 14% Q3 EBITDA decline due to low commodity prices, though EU measures may lift demand. Silicon sales dropped 9%, while foundry alloys rose 5%, with stable fourth-quarter outlooks.

chemweek

2026-11-02

Elkem earnings decline as challenging conditions persist

Elkem earnings decline as challenging conditions persist

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