Up 59% this year, should you sell Meta?

After a 59% surge in its stock price this year, how much further upside does Meta’s strong advertising revenue offer investors? Meta’s share price has risen approximately 550% from its 2022 lows, climbed 59% year-to-date, and gained 86% over the past 12 months—outperforming the S&P 500 over the same period. This rally stems from Meta’s strengthened profitability, with the company repeatedly raising its revenue and profit forecasts. Moreover, the market is betting that Meta stands to become a major winner in the AI space. However, Meta’s current P/E ratio is roughly five times higher than its historical average, and its premium relative to Google has reached an all-time high—prompting investors to urgently weigh whether it’s time to take profits. On October 24, 2024 (U.S. Eastern Time), Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik and his team stated in a report that although Meta faces near-term downside risk—particularly as the U.S. “advertising spending peak” holiday shopping season is shorter this year—the company’s long-term growth potential remains robust. The analysts cited six core reasons for continued growth in Meta’s core business, reiterating an “Outperform” rating and raising their price target from $600 to $675—implying ~20% upside from Meta’s October 23 closing price of $563.69. These six key drivers include: accelerating ad revenue from short-video platform Reels and the Threads app; AI-powered advertising tools that lift ad prices and ROI; and AI recommendation algorithms and AI-generated content that increase user engagement time. Short-Term Caution Remains Bernstein noted that Meta’s stock may face volatility in the near term. The report highlighted several headwinds: first, advertising spend from companies such as Temu and Shein fell short of expectations—down 22% year-on-year in Q3—with Asia-Pacific ad revenue also declining, potentially dragging on Meta’s results. Second, U.S. political ad spending grew less than anticipated, and this year’s U.S. holiday shopping season—running only 27 days, versus 32 last year—is notably shorter, which could dampen ad revenue. Additionally, Meta’s guidance for certain key 2025 metrics remains limited. Meanwhile, if Google outperforms, it could lure some investors away with comparatively lower valuations—adding uncertainty to Meta’s near-term outlook. For instance, the shortened holiday shopping season warrants serious attention. Typically, advertising expenditure peaks during this period—from Black Friday through Christmas. This year’s 27-day window marks a meaningful contraction from last year’s 32 days. Long-Term Growth Remains Compelling Nonetheless, Meta’s long-term growth prospects remain strong. Bernstein expects Meta’s core business to continue expanding, driven by new ad offerings on Threads, sustained growth in Reels, and ongoing advancements in AI and its Advantage+ advertising suite—all of which could attract more advertisers and fuel revenue growth.

4) With overseas holidays concluded, investors have returned to work and begun positioning for 2026—potentially triggering portfolio adjustments. 2. Market Intelligence Tech News: 1) AI Applications Major U.S. AI software stocks plunged—AI agents may displace traditional software companies. 1. Low development costs for AI agents intensify competition, concentrating profits at large foundation-model firms—bearish for most AI application vendors. 2. Pure “wrapper”-type applications—relying solely on third-party foundation models without proprietary R&D—are easily replicable by industry leaders. 3. The AI application landscape will likely evolve into a “winner-takes-all” structure; priority should be given to firms with strong core capabilities in user data collection. 4. Companies must either deliver demonstrable “cost-cutting and efficiency-enhancing” value (making them acquisition targets), or possess proprietary data capable of refining and advancing foundation models. Current investment thesis: Favor leading U.S. and Hong Kong software companies; also favor A-share companies supplying compute hardware and infrastructure to these enterprises. AI agent workloads drive exponential increases in compute demand—the more AI agents proliferate, the smaller the compute “bubble” becomes. 2) Semiconductors Asian investment bank Aletheia significantly upgraded its ratings and price targets for TSMC and ASML. 1. Three core demand drivers: First, memory chipmakers’ demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems continues to rise sharply; second, domestic Chinese demand for deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment remains resilient heading into 2026; third, TSMC may install 40–45 EUV tools in 2027.

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