2024 will be a tough year for corn and soybeans in the United States.

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) forecasts the 2024 average corn price at $4.47 per bushel—lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 2023 average corn price of $4.85 per bushel. The USDA reported the 2023 average soybean price at $12.90 per bushel. FAPRI projects the 2024 soybean price to decline by approximately $2 per bushel, to $10.94. Increased corn supply, decreased soybean supply Mickey, an agricultural economist at Clemson University, noted that corn supply on the market in 2024 will remain largely unchanged from 2023. However, he indicated that soybean supply in 2024 will be somewhat tighter. "We expect corn acreage in 2024 to decline by about 3–4 million acres. If U.S. corn planting area falls short of 3 million acres, what impact would that have on our corn supply? It would decline—but not significantly—because, following the trend line, the projected 2024 yield is expected to be about 7 bushels higher per acre than in 2023. With a reduction of 3 million acres, total 2024 corn supply would remain roughly equal to that of 2023." Mickey stated this during his speech at the South Carolina Corn and Soybean Growers Annual Meeting held on December 14 at the Santee Convention Center. Citing USDA data, Mickey pointed out that U.S. corn ending stocks stood at 1.3 billion bushels at the beginning of 2023—"which sounds like a lot, but actually represents only about 10% of our normal usage. By 2024, we’ll hold 2.1 billion bushels in ending stocks—roughly 15% of our usage. We’re starting the year with substantially more supply." "When we begin with higher initial stocks and produce roughly the same amount of corn, 2024 corn supply will exceed that of the past three years," Mickey said. So, how do we handle such a large volume of corn? "We essentially do three things: We feed it. We use it to produce ethanol. Or we export it. Our feed usage has remained fairly stable—about 5.5 billion bushels of corn are fed annually. This figure will remain largely unchanged in 2024.

Why does the same corn have two different fates?

In July, the global corn market is staging a dramatic 'East-West split': On the other side of the Pacific, at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), corn futures have risen for three consecutive weeks as fund-based short positions collectively exited the market—sending market sentiment soaring. Meanwhile, on this side of the Pacific, at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange, the front-month corn futures contract has slid steadily downward, hitting a recent low—and traders have already begun 'dumping inventory at a loss.' One ruler cannot measure both a meter and a foot: the same corn is playing out entirely divergent scripts on either side of the ocean. 01 CBOT: The 'Three Fires' Behind the Three-Week Rally First fire: Weather—the Corn Belt is 'in a sauna' July marks the critical pollination period for U.S. corn. In industry parlance, this is the 'make-or-break window' determining final yields. This year, that window coincided precisely with a prolonged heatwave—leaving the U.S. Corn Belt literally 'in a sauna'; Europe, across the Atlantic, fared no better. Boya & Xun’s Weekly Global Feed Grain Market Report cut straight to the point: "Adverse weather conditions in U.S. production areas are the primary driver behind this round of corn price increases. Early July brought high temperatures and scant rainfall to the U.S. Corn Belt. Since pollination is a crucial window for determining final corn yields, extreme heat could impair yield potential." At the same time, Europe’s heatwave caused France’s corn crop quality rating to plummet to 58%, the lowest in 13 years. Consulting firm Expana urgently announced a major downward revision to its EU corn production forecast for 2026/27—cutting 3.9 million tons to 53.7 million tons, a staggering 4.3 million-ton reduction from its May projection. A CBOT analyst put it bluntly: "If this weather persists, a yield of 180 bushels per acre may prove closer to reality." Meanwhile, USDA’s official forecast stands at 183 bushels—seemingly just a 3-bushel difference, but applied across nearly 90 million U.S. corn acres, that translates into a shortfall of nearly 300 million bushels. A further decline would push U.S. corn ending stocks directly into the red zone. Second fire: USDA report—giving bulls a 'full-body spa treatment' The July USDA Supply and Demand Report served as the 'ignition booster' for this rally. Boya & Xun provided a detailed breakdown: "Because U.S. corn stocks as of June 1 were lower than expected, USDA raised old-crop feed use by 150 million bushels and increased export projections by 50 million bushels to 3.2 billion bushels; old-crop ending stocks were lowered to 2.02 billion bushels. For new-crop 2026/27, USDA slashed ending stock projections by 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels—well below analysts’ consensus expectation of 1.855 billion bushels." The stocks-to-use ratio plunged from 12.10% to 11.01%—a number whose subtext is clear: the world’s largest corn producer and exporter will face tighter new-crop supplies than previously anticipated. The global picture is similarly bullish. USDA slashed global new-crop corn ending stocks by 6 million tons to 275 million tons—landing them among "the lowest in over a decade." EU production forecasts were trimmed from 57.5 million to 53.8 million tons. Boya & Xun summed up the report’s impact with a vivid metaphor: "Bullish signals were densely packed—igniting strong market optimism." Fangzheng Midterm Futures also cautioned in its semiannual report: globally, new-crop corn supply is tightening overall, and the declining stocks-to-use ratio will establish a medium-term price floor for CBOT corn.

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