Why have major international oil companies seen a sharp decline in Q3 profits, and how are they seeking survival amid this 'winter'?

Its refining and petrochemicals division reported an adjusted net income of $687 million, up 185% year-on-year. Chemicals-related businesses face severe challenges. ExxonMobil’s chemicals segment saw profits plummet by 79%—falling from $2.457 billion in the same period last year to just $515 million in Q3 this year. Shell’s chemicals business reported adjusted Q3 profits of $550 million—up from $463 million year-on-year—but its cumulative profit for the first three quarters of 2025 stood at $1.117 billion, far below the $3.163 billion recorded in the same period last year. New energy businesses show early promise. Shell’s Renewables & Energy Solutions business turned profitable, shifting from a $162 million loss last year to a $92 million profit this year. TotalEnergies’ Integrated Power division posted an adjusted net income of $571 million, up 17.7% year-on-year. III. Multiple factors jointly squeeze profit margins Falling oil prices are the primary driver behind declining profits. In Q3 2025, international crude oil prices declined significantly year-on-year: Brent crude futures averaged $68.17 per barrel—a 13.4% drop—directly undermining upstream profitability across companies. Falling natural gas prices likewise dealt a heavy blow to performance. ExxonMobil CFO Kathy Mikells stated: “The biggest impact on our annual results stems from margins—particularly natural gas margins and refining margins—which have both retreated sharply from historical highs.” Weakening refining margins further intensified profit pressure. Chevron CEO Wirth noted: “The issue isn’t just oil prices—it’s also refining margins, which deteriorated severely in Q3 compared to last year.” Weak demand for chemical products is another key drag on performance. ExxonMobil’s chemicals profits plunged 79%. Dow Chemical’s net profit fell from $240 million to $124 million—a 48% year-on-year decline. Challenges across the chemical sector were pervasive—no major player escaped unscathed. Insufficient global economic momentum remains the core constraint on industry development. Global economic growth remained sluggish in Q3, limiting upside potential for oil and gas demand. OPEC+ accelerated production increases to safeguard market share—further intensifying downward pressure on oil prices. Already teetering on the edge, the industry received yet another heavy blow. IV. Response strategies: increase output, cut costs, and execute buybacks Adopting output-increase strategies to offset falling prices. ExxonMobil’s average Q3 production reached 4.769 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up slightly from 4.63 million boepd in Q2. Chevron set a new record for hydrocarbon production at 4.086 million boepd—an increase of 21% year-on-year. Implementing strict cost-control measures to improve efficiency. Data shows ExxonMobil’s breakeven point has fallen to around $40 per barrel—$10–15 lower than five years ago. The company has already achieved over $14 billion in structural cost savings, targeting $18 billion by end-2030. Continuing aggressive dividend payouts and share repurchases. ExxonMobil distributed $9.8 billion in shareholder dividends in Q3 and raised its Q4 dividend—marking its 42nd consecutive year of dividend increases. Chevron paid a record $7.7 billion in shareholder dividends during Q3 and affirmed it would honor commitments even if it meant borrowing.

Dow Chemical’s 2025 Q3 financial report (released October 27, 2025)

Its stock price had languished for a full year—plummeting two tiers—yet surged 13% following the Q3 2025 earnings release. Has there been a fundamental shift? ・ First, revenue was weak: Q2 guidance for this quarter had projected $10.2 billion. ・ Second, GAAP EPS turned positive only due to two non-recurring items; operating profit failed to cover interest expenses. ・ On the positive side, the loss was narrower than expected—the company’s cost-cutting and capital expenditure reductions have yielded tangible results. Then, has the chemical industry reached a cyclical trough? ・ On the supply side, Dow believes capacity restraint is now underway across all regions—including China: “We’ve seen speculation about closures totaling approximately 13 million metric tons—comprising roughly 5 million tons of additional capacity in Asia, Japan, and Korea, and about 7 million tons in China driven by [anti-expansion] policies.” ・ On the demand side, Dow sees overall conditions remaining weak—with no improvement versus last quarter. It hopes interest rate cuts will stimulate construction starts.

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