Russia's Fascinating New Adventure in Africa (Part II)

In March 2019, 300 mercenaries from the Wagner Group were deployed to a base in Benghazi, from where they participated in attacks against the Government of National Accord (GNA). In late 2019, Khalifa Haftar launched another attempt to capture Tripoli, but was pushed back due to renewed Turkish military support for the GNA. Haftar deployed the Wagner Group to halt the eastward advance of Turkish forces and GNA troops, thereby defending Sirte and Libya’s Oil Crescent. At any point since then, Wagner has maintained 2,000–3,000 fighters in Libya—mostly Russians, but also including personnel from Belarus and the Donbas region of Ukraine. Syrians have reportedly also been recruited to serve in Libya. Since May 2020, Russia has violated the UN arms embargo on Libya by transporting weapons—including the so-called 'Wagner wagon' (an armored combat vehicle) manufactured in Russia by a company under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s conglomerate—via its Russian-operated Hmeimim Air Base in Syria. Russia has consistently supplied Haftar’s forces with snipers, MiG-29 and Su-24 fighter jets, SA-22 surface-to-air missiles, air-defense systems, and hundreds of military logistics flights. Although Russian support has yet to succeed in toppling the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli, Russia’s military presence in Libya is vital to its broader agenda across the African continent—especially in the Sahel region. The Sahel is the transitional zone between the northern Sahara Desert and the southern savannas. Africa’s Sahel region stretches west to east across parts of northern Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, the southernmost tip of Algeria, Niger, the northernmost part of Nigeria, Cameroon and the Central African Republic, central Chad, central and southern Sudan, the northernmost part of South Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. Madagascar Madagascar is a large island nation in the Indian Ocean off Africa’s eastern coast. It remained a French colony until 1960. Throughout 2017 and 2018, senior Russian officials held multiple high-level talks and exchanges with Malagasy leaders. The country possesses abundant reserves of gold, cobalt, nickel, and uranium. Then-President Hery Rajaonarimampianina pledged to Moscow access to these lucrative natural resources. At this time, the Wagner Group and Ferrum Mining—a clear front company linked to Prigozhin—emerged on the scene. In October 2018, the Russian warship Severomorsk made a port call at Antsiranana, Madagascar. Wagner attempted to influence Madagascar’s November 2018 presidential election but failed; despite this failure, the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement in October 2019. As the election campaign neared its conclusion, political strategists under Wagner’s protection began backing Andry Rajoelina—the eventual winner. It is widely believed that one of the final acts of President Rajaonarimampianina’s administration was facilitating the acquisition of Madagascar’s state-owned chromium producer, Kraoma, by a Russian company. In the months following the commercial agreement, Wagner personnel were dispatched to guard the chromium mine.

Does Russia wield influence in Africa?

Contrary to many people’s impressions, Russia’s footprint in Africa has been steadily expanding since 2012: Russia is critically deficient in manganese, bauxite, and chromium—all essential raw materials for modern industrial production. Rusal, Russia’s aluminum giant, has acquired and developed several large-scale bauxite mines in Guinea, estimated to account for roughly one-quarter of the company’s total global production capacity. Alrosa, Russia’s state-owned diamond mining company, signed a diamond cooperation agreement with Angola in 2017. Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil company, secured exploration and production rights to two offshore natural gas fields in Mozambique. Russia has signed trade and economic cooperation agreements with at least nine African nations, broadening the scope and depth of bilateral collaboration. Moreover, following the Arab Spring, instability across Africa has intensified, prompting many African states to seek affordable Russian arms. Russia thus has strong incentives to expand its sphere of influence on the continent. Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims Russia harbors no geopolitical ambitions in Africa, reality tells a different story: The Russian private military company 'Wagner Group' has already deployed armed personnel in 12 African countries. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader, is a core member of President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. This 'private military contractor' operates across Africa entirely in service of Russia’s national interests: the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Libya, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar... Accompanying 'Russian mercenaries' into these countries are Russian diplomats, arms dealers, and energy firms—functioning in practice as Russia’s 'white gloves' for geopolitical expansion. France is withdrawing its mobile military forces (approximately 2,000 troops) deployed across the Sahel region of Africa and scaling back its military footprint. Starting this January, Russian armed personnel will outnumber French troops, becoming the largest foreign military contingent deployed on the African continent.

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