Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries and their subsequent impacts

I. Basic facts of the attacks Since summer 2025, the Ukrainian military has intensified its strikes against Russian energy infrastructure—including oil refineries. According to an article published by the Financial Times website on September 23, since August, 16 out of Russia’s 38 refineries have been struck by Ukrainian drones; several refineries were hit multiple times. These drone attacks have forced the affected refineries to suspend operations either fully or partially. The strikes continue intensively from late September through now. From September to October 1, the main incidents were as follows: (1) Ryazan Refinery On September 5, the Ryazan refinery—located in the Ryazan Oblast southwest of Moscow—was struck by Ukrainian drones. This facility belongs to Rosneft. According to Ukrainian military data, its designed annual refining capacity is 17.1 million tons; Reuters reported that in 2024, it processed 13.1 million tons of crude oil. The refinery produces various grades of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and other petroleum products. It lies approximately 500 km from the Ukrainian border. The facility had already been struck by Ukrainian drones on August 2, causing large-scale production halts. Ukrainian Drones Strike Rosneft Refinery in Ryazan Region (2) Kirishi Refinery On September 14, Ukrainian drones attacked the Kirishi refinery in Leningrad Oblast. Its annual refining capacity stands at 17 million tons—accounting for 6.4% of Russia’s total refinery capacity. The refinery is operated by Surgutneftegas and lies 800 km from the Ukrainian border. It processes over 80 types of petroleum products—including automotive gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel—many of which supply the Russian Armed Forces. Russia Claims Strikes on Ukrainian Military Targets; Ukraine Claims Attacks on Russian Refineries and Railways (3) Saratov Refinery On September 16 and September 20, the Saratov refinery—operated by Rosneft—was struck twice by Ukrainian drones. It is located 600 km from the Ukrainian border. According to Kyiv Independent, the Saratov refinery produces over 20 petroleum products—including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and asphalt—and processed 4.8 million tons of crude oil in 2023. (4) Salavat Refinery On September 18 and September 24, Ukrainian drones struck the Salavat petrochemical plant—owned by Gazprom—in Bashkortostan Republic, Russia. The facility lies 1,400 km from the Ukrainian border. The Salavat Refinery (Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat) is one of Russia’s largest refineries, with an annual capacity of 10 million tons and production of over 150 petroleum and chemical products. Russian Refinery Struck (5) Afipsky Refinery

Analysis of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war as of September 21, 2025 (text version)!

1. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, Russia launched 579 drones and 40 missiles—totaling 619 targets—against Ukrainian cities including Dnipro, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv. High-rise buildings, residential areas, and industrial zones were struck, resulting in at least one fatality and 15 injuries; further damage assessments remain pending. Ukrainian forces intercepted 552 drones and 31 missiles—583 targets in total. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that F-16 fighter jets played a crucial role in repelling this attack. Subsequently, Ukraine launched hundreds of drones targeting 11 Russian regions—including Moscow, Kursk, Samara, Saratov, Volgograd, and Orenburg—as well as Crimea. The Novokuybyshevsk and Saratov refineries sustained heavy damage; both facilities lie over 700 km from the Ukrainian border. Volgograd and Kaluga International Airports suspended operations, and a massive explosion occurred in northwestern Moscow. The intensifying tit-for-tat strikes between Ukraine and Russia are clearly escalating. As Ukraine’s inventory of long-range drones, drone-launched missiles, and cruise missiles grows, Russia will likely suffer mounting losses. 2. According to Agence France-Presse (AFP), three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on September 19, prompting NATO F-35s to scramble in emergency interception. Estonia invoked NATO Article 4 to request consultations and condemned Russia’s action as “brazen.” In response, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentinel, deploying additional aircraft to reinforce its eastern flank. Simultaneously, the EU introduced its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, aimed at constraining its economic and technological access. This incident underscores Russia’s escalating provocations along NATO’s eastern flank—and risks triggering broader conflict. 3. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU’s 19th round of sanctions against Russia. The new measures target energy, financial services, and trade restrictions, including: (1) a full ban on transactions with Rosneft and Gazprom; (2) a prohibition on importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Europe until January 1, 2027; (3) using frozen Russian assets to guarantee loans for Ukraine; (4) sanctioning an additional 118 vessels belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet; (5) restricting Russia’s Mir payment system; (6) imposing new export bans on goods and technologies used by Russia on the battlefield; (7) extending sanctions to cryptocurrency platforms—including banning cryptocurrency transactions; (8) sanctioning Russian and foreign banks, plus 45 companies from Russia and third countries accused of helping Russia evade sanctions and support its military; and (9) lowering the price cap on Russian oil to USD 47.60 per barrel. 4. U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that he originally believed the Ukraine war would be the easiest conflict to resolve—but said Russian leadership “truly disappointed him.” Trump added: “Now is not the time to demand that Russian leaders cease fire. If necessary, I will take tough measures. We must continue driving down oil prices—because if oil prices fall, the Russia-Ukraine war will end.” Trump set preconditions for NATO and European allies’ sanctions against Russia: member states must halt all purchases of Russian energy and other goods. 5. Robert “Mazhar” Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Drone Forces, stated: “Drone forces will constitute 5% of the total Ukrainian Armed Forces (currently at 2.2%).”

Ukraine Claims Strike on Saratov Oil Refinery as Kyiv Hit by Missiles

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Ukraine claimed a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, a facility with 140,000 barrels daily capacity, while Russian attacks damaged Kyiv's energy infrastructure, affecting heating and water systems.

bloomberg

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Ukraine Claims Strike on Saratov Oil Refinery as Kyiv Hit by Missiles

Ukraine Claims Strike on Saratov Oil Refinery as Kyiv Hit by Missiles

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