Due to Ukrainian drone strikes, Russia will permanently lose several large refineries and 20% of its refining capacity.

Executive Summary: Since August, Ukraine has launched intensive drone strikes against Russian oil refineries, resulting in four refineries being fully shut down and five others partially halted—causing over 10% loss of Russia’s total refining capacity. Domestic gasoline prices in Russia surged by 50%, and fuel exports were forced to halt. With Ukraine’s domestically produced ‘Flamingo’ missiles soon joining the strike arsenal, Russia’s energy infrastructure faces even graver threats—potentially losing up to 20% of its refining capacity by year-end. I. Since August, Ukrainian drones have struck over a dozen major Russian refineries, with four completely shut down and five operating at reduced capacity. Following the cooling of relations between Trump and Putin—and the subsequent U.S. policy shift toward Russia—Ukraine resumed, beginning in August, its drone strikes against Russian refineries after a pause of more than half a year. In just three weeks, large-scale drone assaults damaged at least a dozen major refineries across various Russian regions, potentially inflicting irreversible harm on Russia’s domestic refining industry. Since early August, frequent drone attacks on Russian territory have forced the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, and Volgograd refineries to cease operations entirely. Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery suspended half its production capacity—the facility supplies fuel to Moscow and surrounding areas. Meanwhile, the Slavyansk, Afipsky, and Novoshakhtinsk refineries also suffered partial damage to production facilities after drone strikes, requiring localized shutdowns for repairs. In an economic commentary titled “Ukrainian drone strikes push up Russian petrol prices,” the Financial Times stated that these refineries damaged by drone attacks may be shut down long-term—or even “permanently.” In 2024, unplanned maintenance triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes has driven Russia’s refinery output down to its lowest level in 12 years—approximately 267 million tons—while refinery profit margins have plummeted. A gasoline export ban, introduced to safeguard Russia’s domestic market, has further negatively impacted exports. After Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, his initial strategy involved pressuring Ukraine to scale back strikes on Russian territory, hoping to coax Putin into ending the war through incentives (“carrot diplomacy”). However, it became evident that Putin remains obsessed with war and will not cease hostilities until achieving full annexation of Ukraine. In July, Trump resumed military aid to Ukraine—marking a decisive turning point in U.S. policy toward Russia. Starting in August, Ukraine re-launched sustained aerial assaults on Russian refineries located on home soil. Notably, this new wave of strikes targeting Putin’s economic lifeline focuses on all refineries, pumping stations, and oil-tanker trains in Russia’s key consumption and processing regions—aimed both at crippling Russia’s war machine and disrupting daily life. During summer, demand for gasoline among Russian drivers and farmers peaks; thus, the decline in refining capacity inevitably triggers “unprecedented” consequences for Russia’s fuel market. On August 2, drones struck Rosneft’s Ryazan Refinery, with an annual capacity of 13.8 million tons. On the same day, Ukrainian drones also attacked the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery. Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, Governor of Samara Oblast, confirmed the drone strike on the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery.

Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries: current status and follow-up impacts.

I. Basic Situation of the Strikes Since summer 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure—including oil refineries. According to a Financial Times article published on September 23, 16 of Russia’s 38 refineries were struck by Ukrainian drones in August alone; several refineries were hit multiple times. These drone attacks have forced affected Russian refineries to suspend either all or part of their production capacity. Such strikes continue intensively from late September through the present. Key strike incidents from September through October 1: (1) Ryazan Refinery On September 5, the Ryazan Refinery—located southwest of Moscow in Ryazan Oblast—was struck by Ukrainian drones. The facility is owned by Rosneft. According to Ukrainian military data, its design capacity stands at 17.1 million tons per year; Reuters reported that in 2024, it processed 13.1 million tons of crude oil. The refinery produces various grades of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and other petroleum products. It lies approximately 500 km from the Ukrainian border. This refinery had already been struck by Ukrainian drones on August 2, causing widespread shutdowns. Ukrainian Drones Strike Rosneft Refinery in Ryazan Region (2) Kirishi Refinery On September 14, Ukrainian drones struck the Kirishi Refinery in Leningrad Oblast. Its annual capacity is 17 million tons—accounting for 6.4% of Russia’s total refinery capacity. The refinery belongs to Surgutneftegas and lies 800 km from the Ukrainian border. It refines over 80 types of petroleum products—including automotive gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel—many of which supply the Russian Armed Forces. Russia Claims Multi-Directional Strikes Against Ukrainian Military Targets; Ukraine Claims Strikes on Russian Refineries and Railways (3) Saratov Refinery On September 16 and September 20, the Saratov Refinery—owned by Rosneft—was struck twice by Ukrainian drones. It lies 600 km from the Ukrainian border. According to Kyiv Independent, the Saratov Refinery produces over 20 petroleum products—including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and asphalt—with a 2023 throughput of 4.8 million tons. (4) Salavat Refinery On September 18 and September 24, Ukrainian drones struck the Salavat Oil and Gas Processing Plant—operated by Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat—in Bashkortostan Republic. It lies 1,400 km from the Ukrainian border. The Salavat Refinery is one of Russia’s largest, with an annual capacity of 10 million tons and production of over 150 petroleum and chemical products. Russian Refinery Struck (5) Afipsky Refinery

Russia's Syzran and Saratov Oil Refineries Halted After Drone Attacks, Sources Say

5 days ago

Rosneft-owned refineries in Syzran and Saratov halted operations following Ukrainian drone attacks damaging key units. Repairs may take a month, exacerbating domestic fuel shortages in Russia.

reuters

2026-09-16

Russia's Syzran and Saratov Oil Refineries Halted After Drone Attacks, Sources Say

Russia's Syzran and Saratov Oil Refineries Halted After Drone Attacks, Sources Say

FAQ