When Half the Planet Is Burning and Half Drowning: The Climate and Geopolitical Codes Behind the Global Surge in Agricultural Commodities

Yet U.S. weather is not uniformly wet. While floods rage across the Midwest, the Southern Plains endure persistent drought. Over 95% of Colorado’s topsoil moisture is rated 'extremely deficient to deficient.' Winter wheat condition ratings stand at only 28%–30%, far below last year’s 49%—the worst in four years. Drought kills; flooding kills—this is the stark reality of U.S. agriculture in 2026. According to USDA data as of May 18, U.S. corn planting progress stands at 78%, above the five-year average of 73%; soybean planting progress is at 67%, also above the five-year average of 53%. Though planting is advancing rapidly overall, heavy rainfall has delayed sowing in states such as Michigan and Ohio, placing approximately 15%–20% of corn acreage and 25%–30% of soybean acreage under weather-related threat. Even more alarming: the USDA forecasts that U.S. wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year may fall to its lowest level since 1972—a decline of over 21% year-on-year. Should farmers whose planting is delayed fail to complete sowing before their crop insurance deadlines—and instead opt for indemnity payments—the final planted area could shrink further. IV. Prices Are Already Speaking: The Transmission Chain from Field to Futures Extreme weather has not yet fully materialized into yield losses—but futures markets have already priced it in. CBOT wheat futures surged from 593.3 cents/bushel on April 14 to 674.8 cents/bushel on May 13—a 13.7% rise; corn rose from 443 to 480.5 cents/bushel over the same period, up 8.5%. On May 18 alone, soybeans, corn, and wheat jumped 2.97%, 4.72%, and 4.56%, respectively. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s March Food Price Index rose 2.4% month-on-month to 128.5 points—the highest since September 2025—and marked the second consecutive monthly increase. The Bloomberg Commodity Agriculture Spot Index—which tracks the ten most-traded global agricultural commodities—has risen for three straight months, hitting a new high not seen since November 2023. The World Bank’s March 2026 ‘Food and Nutrition Security Update’ report notes: food inflation exceeds 5% in roughly 50 countries; in 57.1% of countries, real food price inflation outpaces overall inflation. Wheat prices are up 7% year-on-year; corn and wheat prices stand 20% and 7%, respectively, above their January 2020 levels. FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero cut straight to the point: 'If conflict persists beyond 40 days—and input costs remain high while planting profits stay thin—farmers face tough choices: reduce inputs while maintaining acreage, scale back planting altogether, or shift to crops requiring less fertilizer. These decisions will directly shape future harvests.' V. Fertilizer Shortages: The 'Second Blade' at the Strait of Hormuz If weather is the first blow, then the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the second. A FAO Council document dated April 28 states: the Strait of Hormuz serves as a conduit for some 20%–30% of global fertilizer exports; an estimated 1.5–3 million metric tons of fertilizer trade per month is being delayed due to disruptions in the Strait.

Foreign media report that 'extreme weather continues to impact global food systems, and global grain prices may remain elevated throughout 2022'—what impacts will this cause?

New Scientist | Climate Change Is Driving Up Food Prices—and It Will Get Worse Background Reading As global warming intensifies, food prices are projected to surge sharply over the next decade. A study conducted jointly with the European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that by 2035, rising temperatures alone will push global food prices upward by 0.9% to 3.2% annually. This shift is expected to lift overall inflation by 0.3–1.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, extreme weather events triggered by global warming are increasingly disrupting global food production, compelling farmers to adapt their cultivation practices—or else face severe challenges to crop yields and food security. Close Reading P1: You are already paying more and more for food due to global warming—and rising temperatures will drive food prices a lot higher in the next decade. According to a study done in collaboration with the European Central Bank, by 2035, higher temperatures alone will be pushing up worldwide food prices by between 0.9 and 3.2 per cent every single year. This will add between 0.3 and 1.2 per cent to overall inflation. To find out how this is affecting food prices, Kotz and his colleagues compared data on the monthly prices of a range of goods and services in 121 countries between 1996 and 2021, along with the weather conditions those countries were exposed to.

Swiss National Bank's Schlegel Watches Hot Weather Impact on Food Price Inflation

20 hours ago

Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel stated that while record heat impacts food prices, recent inflation is primarily driven by petroleum costs. The central bank maintained interest rates at 0%, anticipating a decline in crude oil prices by mid-2029.

reuters

2026-09-26

Swiss National Bank's Schlegel Watches Hot Weather Impact on Food Price Inflation

Swiss National Bank's Schlegel Watches Hot Weather Impact on Food Price Inflation

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