According to Macquarie, what is the expected oil market imbalance in the fourth quarter of this year and early next year, and what is driving it?

Macquarie sees oil stocks set to start building again, reaching a daily surplus of 2 million barrels in the fourth quarter, and doubling that in the first three months of next year. This anticipated oversupply is driven by an expected de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict before the midterms, which would allow Middle Eastern oil flows to resume after having been sapped by the war that broke out in late February.

Why does Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi describe the US political window for a deal as 'weeks away, not months' with the midterms as the 'expiration date'?

Dwivedi describes the window as 'weeks away, not months' because US President Donald Trump faces strong political incentive to end the widely unpopular war before the November midterm elections, as high gas prices—again above $4 a gallon—and broader inflation are top voter concerns; the 'expiration date' refers to the midterms, after which Iran risks facing a more aggressive US military campaign, reducing the urgency and leverage for diplomacy.

Macquarie Sees Oil Glut Risk on US-Iran Deal Before Midterms

Jul 27, 2026

Macquarie analysts forecast an oil market oversupply before year-end if US-Iran tensions ease ahead of midterm elections. Daily surpluses could reach 2 million barrels in Q4 as Middle East oil flows resume.

bloomberg

2026-07-27

Macquarie Sees Oil Glut Risk on US-Iran Deal Before Midterms

Macquarie Sees Oil Glut Risk on US-Iran Deal Before Midterms

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