Behind Innovent's Hundred-Billion-Yuan Glory: The Dilemma of China's GLP-1 Sector

Signals of a price war have already emerged: the Sichuan Provincial Medical Device Procurement Center’s publicly disclosed price reduction information shows that Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss formulation of semaglutide (Wegovy®) — 2.27 mg/mL × 3 mL — dropped from ¥1,893.67 to ¥987.48; and the 3.2 mg/mL × 3 mL formulation fell from ¥2,463 to ¥1,284.36. By convention, once a patent expires and generics flood the market, the sector undergoes a bloodbath. PD-1 inhibitors and HPV vaccines both followed this path. Yet this time, Molecular Jun expresses skepticism. It’s not that he doubts generics will capture market share — rather, he doubts the price war itself: when you confidently dive headfirst into a price war, take a closer look — the racecourse has already changed. 01 A Harsh Truth Hidden in Novo Nordisk’s Financial Report First, consider Novo Nordisk’s 2025 financial report: total net sales reached DKK 309.1 billion (approx. USD 46.85 billion), with the three semaglutide brands collectively accounting for over 70% of revenue. One drug alone outperformed Kweichow Moutai (which reported ~USD 24 billion in revenue in 2024). But the more critical data point is this: oral Wegovy launched in the U.S. on January 5, 2026. IQVIA prescription data shows it generated 18,410 prescriptions in the week ending January 16, and 26,109 prescriptions in the week ending January 23. For comparison: — During its initial launch phase, injectable Wegovy generated only several thousand prescriptions per week; — Oral Wegovy, within less than three weeks of launch, surpassed 10,000 prescriptions per week — and kept growing by another 10,000 weekly! That is the harsh truth: while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are already selling oral formulations, Chinese pharmaceutical companies are still preparing to wage a price war on injectables. The moment the price war begins, the racecourse has already shifted. Dozens of GLP-1 candidates are under development across China — and the vast majority are injectables. What are these pipelines competing on? Dosing frequency. Some aim for once-weekly injections; others target once-every-two-weeks; some even promise monthly dosing — and one company has boldly claimed a 'once-every-six-months' formulation. Meanwhile, overseas competitors have already moved to oral administration — and we’re still debating which injection interval is scientifically optimal. Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2030, oral therapies will account for roughly 24% of the anti-obesity medication (AOM) market — valued at approximately USD 22.3 billion. Novo Nordisk executive Ze predicts oral GLP-1 drugs could claim over one-third of the entire GLP-1 market by 2030. Let’s compare directly — it’s simpler: China’s fastest-developing oral GLP-1 candidate lags behind the U.S.’s fastest by at least 18 months. In this USD 100-billion feast, are Chinese pharma companies the ones carving up the cake — or the cake being carved up? This is why I’m skeptical about this price war: While you’re slashing prices in the injectable market, consumers are migrating en masse to oral therapies. By the time your prices hit rock bottom, the market will no longer be there. 02 Innovent’s Awkward Position: Crowned Champion Just as the Racecourse Shifts Innovent Biologics is a textbook case. At the end of June 2025, Innovent’s masidutide was approved for marketing — becoming the world’s first dual-target (GCG/GLP-1) weight-loss drug. Its head-to-head trial data looked impressive: significantly superior to semaglutide in both glycemic control and weight loss. It’s a strong product — technologically advanced, too. Indeed, Innovent went all-in on this drug: media outlets ran round-the-clock PR campaigns; employees performed collective weight-loss calisthenics; and a New Year pop-up collaboration with the Yellow Duck brand created a viral marketing sensation — an unprecedented, multifaceted promotional playbook other pharma firms simply couldn’t replicate. As a result, masidutide’s public recognition soared.

Oral GLP-1 Drugs Are Selling Like Hotcakes

Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 drug is selling like hotcakes. On January 23, IQVIA data showed that oral Wegovy — Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss medication — achieved 18,410 prescriptions in its first full week on the U.S. market (week ending January 16). Notably, within just its first four days on the market, it generated 3,071 prescriptions. Immediately upon launch, oral GLP-1 prescriptions significantly outpaced those of injectable alternatives and other GLP-1 agents — effectively reversing earlier concerns about market saturation in the U.S. GLP-1 space. Thanks to its convenience and cost advantages, oral weight-loss therapy is clearly the future trend. As Novo Nordisk previously projected, oral formulations are expected to capture over one-third of the GLP-1 market by 2030. Accordingly, oral GLP-1 drugs are attracting increasing interest from pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Following Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate is expected to gain FDA approval in April; Merck & Co. and Pfizer have entered the space via acquisitions; and domestically, companies including ASCO Pharmaceuticals and Hansoh Pharmaceutical are accelerating their clinical development. A new weight-loss battle is imminent. / 01 / Novo Nordisk Secures First-Mover Advantage — Again In the highly certain weight-loss market, Novo Nordisk’s first-mover advantage remains unmistakable. Earlier this year, Eli Lilly captured most of the market share with its injectable weight-loss drug Zepbound®, and Zepbound’s prescription volume has now notably surpassed that of Wegovy. Yet it’s crucial to note: Wegovy received FDA approval for weight management in 2021, whereas Zepbound wasn’t approved until 2024. Leveraging its early entry, Novo Nordisk successfully penetrated the nascent GLP-1 market first. It wasn’t until early 2025 that Zepbound’s prescription volume rose to first place — and not until Q3 2025 that it achieved quarterly sales leadership. This time, Novo Nordisk has again seized first-mover advantage in the oral GLP-1 arena. On December 23, 2025, Novo Nordisk announced that oral Wegovy had received FDA approval — becoming the first and only oral GLP-1 drug approved for adult weight management. On January 5, 2026, oral Wegovy officially launched in the U.S. market and rapidly scaled up distribution. Symphony data recorded 4,290 total prescriptions in its first week — compared to 1,017 for injectable semaglutide and 1,911 for Zepbound. Per the latest IQVIA prescription data, oral Wegovy achieved 18,410 prescriptions in its first full week on the U.S. market (week ending January 16). Such prescription volume powerfully reflects market anticipation for oral weight-loss therapies. This strong performance stems from its ability to broaden the eligible patient population. David Moore, Executive Vice President of Operations at Novo Nordisk, stated: “Oral therapy not only meets the needs of existing GLP-1 users but also reaches previously untreated populations — including men, younger patients, and individuals who previously avoided injectable treatments.”

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Novo CEO Predicts Oral Weight-Loss Pills Could Capture 50% of Market by 2030

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