The Six Major Oil Majors Earned 5 Billion RMB Per Day in the First Half of the Year, with Combined Profits Reaching $135.6 Billion

Chevron’s performance was equally robust: its net profit for the first half of the year reached $14.77 billion, surging 115% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, Chevron posted profits of $12 billion—up from just $2.5 billion a year earlier. Its operating cash flow totaled $25.1 billion, an 82% increase year-on-year. Among European majors, TotalEnergies reported adjusted net profit of $11.4 billion for the first half, up 47% year-on-year; Shell’s adjusted net profit stood at $9.84 billion, up 70.2%; and BP posted the strongest growth—its adjusted net profit soared 139% to $8.93 billion. Collectively, these six companies generated approximately $135.6 billion (roughly RMB 915.15 billion) in profit—equivalent to daily net earnings of $749 million (about RMB 5.056 billion). This daily figure exceeds the full-year revenue of many listed companies. II. Three Engines Driving Windfall Profits This windfall is no accident—it results from the simultaneous convergence of three powerful forces. First Engine: Soaring Oil Prices. Ongoing Middle East conflicts continue disrupting global supply chains. Following the outbreak of U.S.-Iran hostilities, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint—was severely impeded, placing pressure on nearly 20% of global crude oil shipments. Saudi Aramco’s output dropped sharply by 25% quarter-on-quarter to 9.46 million barrels of oil equivalent per day—the steepest decline among the six majors. While production fell, prices surged: Brent crude’s average price in Q2 rose significantly over Q1. Lower output coupled with higher prices delivered outsized gains for oil producers. Second Engine: Production Ramp-Up. The broad-based profit surge reflects a competitive edge in asset quality. ExxonMobil achieved its highest upstream production in over two decades, with output from the Permian Basin exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day. Chevron benefited from acquisitions—including Hess—and increased Permian output, achieving record upstream oil and gas production; its Q2 output rose 20% year-on-year. High-quality fields are now entering a phase of explosive production growth. Third Engine: Refining Windfalls. Russia’s refining capacity shortfall, Middle Eastern supply disruptions, tightening feedstock availability for Asian refineries, and historically low global inventories have pushed global refining margins to record highs. Chevron’s refineries set a new record for crude processing capacity at 1.07 million barrels per day, with utilization exceeding 97%. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals division posted adjusted net operating profit of $3.4 billion for the first half—nearly five times higher year-on-year. Shell’s Q2 refining margin rose 41% quarter-on-quarter to $24 per barrel, while its chemicals and products segment posted its strongest adjusted earnings since Q3 2021. These refining windfalls contributed substantially to the majors’ incremental profits. With all three engines firing simultaneously, the six majors’ profits have reached unprecedented heights. III. From ‘Energy Transition Pioneers’ Back to ‘Capital Discipline’ In this high-oil-price cycle, strategic priorities among oil majors are undergoing profound shifts. European energy firms had previously borne greater pressure to transition away from fossil fuels—pledging reduced oil & gas investment and large-scale entry into new energy sectors. Reality, however, has intervened: new-energy projects deliver low returns, while energy security concerns have re-emerged strongly. Over the past two years, European companies have clearly pivoted—from ‘energy transition pioneers’ back toward ‘capital discipline.’ BP’s newly appointed CEO Meg O’Neill explicitly stated that the company has made significant progress strengthening its balance sheet.

Geopolitical Conflict Fuels Energy Windfalls and Economic Fragmentation: A Deep Macro-Economic Analysis of Oil Price Dynamics, Oil Companies’ Excess Profits, and Global Macroeconomic Impacts Amid the U.S.-Iran Conflict

Introduction At the end of February 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran, triggering a full-blown military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the global energy lifeline—was disrupted, sending international crude markets into violent volatility. Geopolitical risk premiums propelled oil prices steadily upward. U.S. oil majors—including ExxonMobil and Chevron—reaped historic excess profits fueled by soaring prices; some firms’ profits reached 12 times their year-earlier levels. On August 3, President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with oil companies’ windfall profits at the White House. He criticized them for profiting from wartime conditions without passing savings on to end consumers, and ordered them to lower domestic retail fuel prices. He also bluntly predicted that once the U.S. fully resolves the Iranian issue and Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions subside, global oil prices will plummet dramatically. This energy price storm—ignited by military conflict—has long transcended commodity market dynamics, forming a complete economic transmission chain: Middle Eastern geopolitical disruption → sharp fluctuations in international oil prices → U.S. oil companies capturing wartime windfalls → rebounding domestic inflation and mounting pressure on household consumption → the Federal Reserve caught in a policy dilemma → White House administrative pressure on energy giants → global industrial chain cost restructuring. Researchers at the Ameriga Global Economic Research Institute (Shanghai), a subsidiary of Ameriga Global (Shanghai) Economic Development Co., Ltd., noted in earlier tracking analyses that this round of oil price volatility is far more than a standalone energy market event—it will reshape global cross-border supply chains, regional trade layouts, digital industry cost structures, and the pace of new-energy development. Several domestic industry research institutions have likewise conducted complementary analyses across supply chains, digital technologies, and industrial manufacturing. This article provides a comprehensive, in-depth macroeconomic analysis across six dimensions: crude oil pricing logic; U.S. oil companies’ profit structure; macroeconomic impacts on the U.S.; global inflation and trade patterns; expectations-driven price博弈 (game-theoretic) dynamics; and the energy sector’s future trajectory—clarifying the underlying operational logic of energy economics amid geopolitical war, unpacking the dual economic and political motives behind Trump’s pressure on oil firms, and forecasting the profound implications of the conflict’s trajectory for oil prices and the global economy. Chapter I: The U.S.-Iran Conflict Reshapes Global Crude Supply, Making Geopolitical Premiums the Core Driver of Oil Prices 1.1 The Strait of Hormuz: The Achilles’ Heel of Global Oil Supply Chains—and the Fundamental Catalyst Behind This Round of Oil Price Surge The Strait of Hormuz controls the sole maritime exit from the Persian Gulf, handling roughly 30% of seaborne crude oil and 20% of total global oil consumption. Crude exports from core Middle Eastern producers—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran—are overwhelmingly dependent on this waterway, earning it the moniker “the world’s oil valve.” After the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran at the end of February 2026, Iran swiftly retaliated—deploying drones and missiles to harass passing tankers and installing maritime blockade infrastructure. Strait transit efficiency collapsed by roughly half; numerous crude carriers were forced to reroute, causing sharp increases in maritime transport costs and insurance premiums. Markets formed persistent fears of supply interruption—this was the fundamental trigger behind the oil price surge, not merely actual crude production cuts. Prior to the conflict, WTI crude—the U.S. benchmark—traded steadily between $65–$68 per barrel, while Brent crude hovered around $72 per barrel. Within one month of the conflict’s outbreak, Brent crude spiked to a peak of $126 per barrel intraday, and WTI breached $100 per barrel—a short-term gain exceeding 54%, marking the largest single-phase oil price surge in nearly four years. Even after markets gradually absorbed some of the extreme panic, prices retreated only partially: as of early August, both major crude contracts remained over 20% higher than pre-war levels. Meanwhile, U.S. retail gasoline prices surged nearly 40%: according to AAA data, the national average jumped from $2.98 per gallon before the war to $4.10 per gallon—fuel cost hikes directly squeezed American households’ daily expenditures.

Imperial Oil beats profit estimates on stronger refining margins

3 days ago

Imperial Oil exceeded third-quarter profit forecasts driven by widened refining margins amid global energy supply disruptions. Despite reduced crude throughput, downstream earnings surged to C$1.56 billion.

reuters

Imperial Oil beats profit estimates on stronger refining margins

reuters

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