War, CPI, and Trade Resumption

【Answer 1】 As the U.S.-Iran war enters its current phase, the most absurd aspect is not the battlefield stalemate—but the existence of two entirely separate scripts playing out in public and behind closed doors. In front of cameras, Trump declares, “I don’t regret launching this war,” and adds, “It will end immediately after the election.” Yet, senior White House officials privately tell him the conflict could drag on until 2029. A president hears “fight through the end of your term” inside the Situation Room, then walks out to tell the world, “It ends right after the election.” This isn’t strategic ambiguity—it’s two parallel scripts. Why can’t it end? Because the cost of war is simply too high for anyone to sustain. The U.S. fights wearing shoes—aircraft carrier strike groups, Tomahawk missiles, global military bases—each one burning through vast sums. Iran fights barefoot—cheap drones, low-cost missiles, ordinary citizens hauling oil barrels over mountains. The barefoot aren’t afraid of the shod; the side that can endure often outlasts the side that cannot win. So a businessman won’t wage total war. At heart, Trump is a businessman—and his war logic isn’t about “victory,” but about “deals.” Fighting is for leverage; stopping is for cashing in that leverage. The bill for total war isn’t one he can sign alone. But he also can’t stop easily—stopping would make voters feel the fighting was pointless. So he drags it out: past the midterms, to some moment he can package as a victory. In the short term, the first to buckle may be Netanyahu. His war has been his political talisman—but that talisman is turning into a death warrant. Israeli public anger is mounting over his prolongation of the war, neglect of hostages, and hijacking of the nation’s fate. The U.S. needs an Israeli government capable of negotiating a ceasefire—and Netanyahu’s very presence is the biggest obstacle to one. In the long term, Trump must confront the question: How do you define victory? He might claim, “We destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities”—but Iran says they’ve already been relocated. He might boast, “We struck 5,000 targets”—yet the war continues. When “victory” cannot be defined, any outcome can be spun as triumph—or exposed as failure. II. Iran’s Counterstrike: Human Oil Pipelines and the Yemeni Inferno Iran knows one thing clearly: It lacks the capability to strike the U.S. homeland. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Iran has no active ballistic missile development program capable of reaching the United States. Its missiles have a range of roughly 2,000 kilometers—enough to cover the Middle East. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and all U.S. military bases across the region fall well within that reach. But Washington, New York, and Los Angeles do not. If you can’t hit their home, burn their backyard. Iran’s strategy is crystal clear: It doesn’t seek military victory—only to make the U.S. untenable in the Middle East. Revolutionary Guard officers are coordinating closely with Houthi forces in Yemen, with their sights set squarely on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Between September 10 and 11, the Houthis seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha—and Perim Island, located at the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Controlling Perim Island is like placing your hand directly on the world’s maritime jugular. Saudi Arabia finds itself in the most awkward position. After the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded, Riyadh rerouted crude oil via an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea, then onward through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—its sole alternative export route. With the Houthis seizing both Mocha and Perim Island, Saudi Arabia’s backup lifeline has been severed. Its crude oil output dropped to roughly 6 million barrels per day in August—the lowest level in over thirty years. Yet Iran’s true masterstroke lies not on the battlefield—but in the economy.

Alert Escalated! IEA: April Oil Losses Will Be Double March’s—Impact Exceeds Combined Scale of Three Historical Crises

【Answer 2】 Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has warned that the energy crisis triggered by the Middle East war is now the most severe supply shock in history—exceeding the combined impact of the two 1970s oil crises and Russia’s 2022 natural gas cutoff—and the situation continues to deteriorate. Speaking on a podcast hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Birol stated that oil supply losses in April will be double those seen in March. He explained that in March, some tankers had already transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war erupted on February 28 and were still arriving at ports—providing a temporary buffer. “By April, that buffer will be completely gone,” he said. “There will be nothing.” Birol added that the IEA is considering further releases from strategic petroleum reserves and warned that shortages of jet fuel and diesel have already reached Asia—and are expected to spread to Europe between April and May. He emphasized that energy rationing could soon become a reality in multiple countries, pushing up inflation and dragging down economic growth across many nations—especially emerging markets. Unprecedented Supply Shortfall In the podcast, Birol cited concrete data to directly compare the current crisis with historical precedents. He noted that during each of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, supply losses totaled approximately 5 million barrels per day—triggering recessions in numerous countries. By contrast, the current Middle East war has already caused supply losses exceeding 12 million barrels per day—more than the combined losses of both earlier crises. Meanwhile, natural gas supply losses resulting from the Strait of Hormuz blockade have surpassed the scale of Russia’s 2022 gas cutoff. “The current crisis has already exceeded the combined impact of those three past crises,” Birol stated. He also pointed out that supply chains for petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and other key commodities are suffering severe disruption: “We are heading toward the largest major supply disruption in history.” Some 40 critical energy assets across the Middle East have already been damaged or destroyed. Worsening Gap in April—Refined Product Shortages Emerge as Core Challenge Birol explained why the situation deteriorates sharply in April: Most tankers arriving in March had departed and transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out on February 28—providing the market with a brief cushion.

Podcast: Middle East Crisis Threatens Shortages, Higher Prices and Inflation

6 days ago

This podcast analyzes how the Middle East conflict threatens market volatility and shortages due to low strategic reserves. It also commemorates the late ICIS contributor John Richardson.

icis

2026-09-16

Podcast: Middle East Crisis Threatens Shortages, Higher Prices and Inflation

Podcast: Middle East Crisis Threatens Shortages, Higher Prices and Inflation

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