Saudi Arabia significantly increased its crude oil exports in September; the memorial portrait of Tan Zhen of the Warriors has been placed.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army stated that the current hostilities are at a 'critical and decisive' stage. He said Tehran cannot accept a situation where Iran is unable to conduct trade while foreign powers exploit the region’s strategic waterways—and vowed to seal off the Strait. I’ll omit this individual’s name, as he’s merely a temporary placeholder; surviving until year-end would be considered lucky for him. [1.2] Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in September rebounded to 2025 levels: According to shipping data firm Kpler, the Kingdom’s seaborne crude exports in September rose to 6 million barrels per day (bpd), returning to its average monthly export level for 2025. This news surprised me greatly—because in September, Saudi Arabia’s east-west crude pipeline was temporarily shut down following a drone attack, and its crude exports in August had stood at only 3.4 million bpd. It was truly unexpected that exports could rebound so sharply in September. The pipeline disruption impeded Saudi exports via the Yanbu port on the Red Sea; in response, Saudi Arabia urgently adjusted its logistics strategy, shifting the bulk of its crude exports back to the Strait of Hormuz and relying on loading from Persian Gulf ports—driving a sharp rebound in export figures. Data show this export surge did not result from increased production, but rather from inventory drawdowns and a switch in transportation routes. It appears Saudi Arabia still possesses considerable operational capability—not just empty talk. Numerous pro-Russian and pro-Iranian media outlets in China’s internet sphere have long touted the Revolutionary Guard and Houthi forces as valiant and in firm control of both straits—yet Saudi Arabia’s oil export figures have delivered a stark rebuke. According to Caixin Global, with the U.S. military having established a new shipping corridor along Oman’s coast, Saudi Arabia has shifted its crude exports back to the Strait of Hormuz. The report also notes that although this route still carries risk of Iranian attacks, other Gulf states have relied on it for months to ship oil. Kpler data show that the seven-day average volume of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz reached 13.2 million bpd on Wednesday—down from roughly 17 million bpd before the Iranian conflict disrupted shipping. Though unscientific, if we crudely adopt this seven-day average, current Strait throughput stands at about 77% of pre-war levels—approaching 80%. Some self-media bloggers claim that 'the vast majority' of commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz voluntarily register with Iran—and readers have asked me to verify this. I can only say that, based on the massive volume of international news I monitor daily, I have seen no such claim reported by any authoritative or reliable source. I cannot assert this claim is false—my own scope of observation is limited—but I can say: those who believe it assume substantial risk. In fact, as far as I’ve observed, most vessels transit the Strait by switching off their transponders and sailing through the Omani side of the channel under U.S. military protection. Though some ships have recently been struck by unidentified flying objects—the incidents remain rare and are becoming increasingly infrequent. I also fundamentally reject the pro-Iranian bloggers’ narrative that 'Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz.' In reality, since February 28 this year, Iran has not exercised genuine control over this waterway on a single day. Every day, numerous commercial vessels pass through the Strait without Iranian authorization—it’s merely a question of how many.

Latest forecast! Both revised downward!

OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 in its latest monthly report. In its report released last Wednesday, OPEC projected global oil demand would rise by 600,000 bpd in 2026—down from its previous estimate of 800,000 bpd. The primary factor behind the downward revision stems from Asian markets. The report indicates that oil demand growth in China, India, and other Asian countries is expected to weaken in 2026. Meanwhile, oil demand across the Asia-Pacific region is projected to decline more sharply this year. Although the 2026 forecast was lowered, the report raised its outlook for 2027: global oil demand is now projected to increase by approximately 2.2 million bpd—up from the prior estimate of 1.9 million bpd. This higher growth projection is driven mainly by stronger anticipated demand across Asian markets—including China, India, other Asian countries, and the broader Asia-Pacific region—where demand growth in 2027 is expected to be significantly broader than in 2026. Europe is also expected to post stronger year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2026, citing persistent disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz and persistently high fuel prices. The IEA now expects global oil demand in 2026 to fall by 1.56 million bpd—about 510,000 bpd more than its previous forecast—reaching 103.29 million bpd. It forecasts global oil demand will decline by 4.9 million bpd in Q2, with the contraction narrowing to 2.8 million bpd in the current quarter and turning into growth of approximately 580,000 bpd in Q4. The IEA assumes a de-escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions and anticipates a gradual recovery in oil supply over the coming months. On this basis, it projects global oil demand will rise by 2.4 million bpd in 2027, reaching 105.7 million bpd. The IEA states that the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipments will transform the global oil supply shortfall—projected at 4.3 million bpd year-on-year in 2026—into a surplus of 8.3 million bpd in 2027. Consequently, the global oil market is expected to shift from a 1.3-million-bpd supply deficit in 2026 to a 4.6-million-bpd supply surplus in 2027. Gulf oil producers seek alternative export routes Currently, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption on global energy markets remains unresolved. According to tracking data from Kpler, Shipxy, and other firms, Strait of Hormuz throughput has recovered to only 10–15% of pre-geopolitical-conflict levels. Latest data indicate that although some vessels can still transit the Strait and Persian Gulf to non-Iranian ports, volumes remain only a tiny fraction of pre-war levels. CNN reported that only 14 vessels passed through the Strait on November 11—compared to an average of 130 vessels per day before the conflict.

Gulf States Accelerate New Oil Transport Channels to Reduce Strait of Hormuz Dependence, Says Kpler

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Gulf nations are building alternative oil transport routes to ensure supply resilience against Strait of Hormuz disruptions, shifting focus from upstream projects to contingency planning, per Kpler at ADIPEC 2026.

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Gulf States Accelerate New Oil Transport Channels to Reduce Strait of Hormuz Dependence, Says Kpler

Gulf States Accelerate New Oil Transport Channels to Reduce Strait of Hormuz Dependence, Says Kpler

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