What are the main weather-related causes of reduced biofuel feedstock production in Europe, and which crops are most affected?

The main weather-related causes include excessive spring rainfall causing waterlogged soils in parts of Western Europe, followed by persistent heatwaves during the critical summer grain-filling period—both disrupting crop development. These anomalies have led to downward revisions in the production forecasts for key biofuel feedstocks: oilseed rape (rapeseed), corn (maize), and sugar beet. Specifically, COCERAL revised the EU27+UK oilseed rape output to 21.2 million tonnes (down from 21.5 million), corn to 52.7 million tonnes (down from 57.2 million), and wheat to 140.8 million tonnes (down from 149.8 million tonnes), with France’s corn output projected at just 9.4 million tonnes—the lowest in over 20 years.

How is the decline in agricultural output expected to impact European biofuel producers’ profitability and sourcing strategies?

The decline in agricultural output is expected to tighten regional feedstock supply, raise raw material costs—including rapeseed oil and grain-based ethanol—and compress profit margins across the European biofuel industry. In response, blending companies may increase imports of feedstocks or shift toward alternative, non-food feedstocks such as waste-derived oils; however, both options are anticipated to drive up production costs, making cost escalation ‘inevitable’ according to industry statements cited in the report.

European Biofuel Industry Faces Raw Material Supply Risks

Aug 18, 2026

ICIS reports severe weather in Europe has reduced crop yields like rapeseed and corn, threatening biofuel raw material supplies. Rising production costs and shrinking profit margins are expected for European biofuel companies.

ccin

2026-08-18

European Biofuel Industry Faces Raw Material Supply Risks

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