Crude Oil Research Report: Crude Oil Prices Hit a Three-Month High—Geopolitical Premium Drives Price Gains

1. Evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated; conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement in Yemen continues, leaving the regional outlook highly uncertain. 2. Navigational access through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed: Iranian officials have explicitly stated that the Strait will not be opened without authorization and plan to designate restricted zones there soon, further escalating risks of supply disruption. Chapter I: Review of International Crude Oil Market Trends Geopolitical developments drive weekly average crude oil prices higher This week (September 3–9), international crude oil prices trended upward overall, with the weekly average rising week-on-week. Key geopolitical factors influencing the market this week included: U.S.–Iran tensions: Tensions showed no signs of easing this week; navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked. Both sides launched new rounds of military exchanges, and Iran repeatedly reaffirmed that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, intensifying market anxiety. Growing uncertainty in the Middle East: Beyond U.S.–Iran tensions, renewed military clashes occurred this week between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi movement, damaging some energy infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia. Rise in international crude oil spot prices International crude oil spot prices rose this week, with representative trading activities across major markets as follows: 1. Middle East crude oil market Iraq National Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): SOMO offered Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy crude cargoes for August loading to long-term contract customers last month, at discounts of USD 25–29.80 per barrel relative to their Official Selling Prices (OSPs). 2. Asian and African crude oil spot markets Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): Procured 4 million barrels of West African crude via tender, including: 1 million barrels of Angolan Nemba crude from Chevron Corporation; 2 million barrels of Nemba crude and Nigerian Okwuibome crude from Glencore International AG; and 1 million barrels of Ghanaian Jubilee crude from Glencore International AG. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL): Procured approximately 2 million barrels of U.S. WTI crude for November delivery via tender, at a price premium of about USD 13 per barrel over prompt Brent; sellers were Totsa and Glencore International AG. Chapter II: Key Events in the Crude Oil Market OPEC+ Maintains October Production Policy Unchanged Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability. On September 6, 2026, the G7 held a video conference to jointly assess global market conditions and prospects, deciding to keep October’s daily crude oil production quotas unchanged from September’s levels. Specific quotas are as follows: Saudi Arabia—10.478 million barrels per day; Russia—9.949 million bpd; Iraq—4.431 million bpd; Kuwait—2.676 million bpd; Kazakhstan—1.628 million bpd; Algeria—1.007 million bpd; Oman—0.841 million bpd.

India Finance, May 21, 2024—India Formulates Free Trade Agreement Strategy and Standard Operating Procedures

1. For over a year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, maintaining a relatively hawkish stance amid inflation remaining above the 4% target. Given uncertainties surrounding vegetable and pulse prices, the RBI is unlikely to shift its position in the near term, and expectations of rate cuts have been pushed back to year-end. 2. An intense heatwave is not only causing daily inconvenience but also affecting various economic sectors. The upcoming monsoon season will likewise be critical for the economy. Weather is becoming a permanent factor in the RBI’s assessment of its ability to influence food prices. 3. Southern India—particularly Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Chennai—will lead the recovery of India’s office real estate market; by 2025, these cities are projected to account for 60% of total space demand. The technology sector and global capability centers are driving office leasing activity, with Bengaluru leading in demand. Experts anticipate surging demand in 2024 from companies such as QuessCorp, Morgan Stanley, Google, and Amazon. 4. Due to fierce competition among Indian lending institutions and pressure to maintain relationships with large corporations, banks possess only ‘limited capacity’ to pass on the impact of proposed increases in provisioning requirements for project loans. According to insiders, officials from several major banks conveyed this message to the RBI last week. On May 3, the RBI released draft regulations proposing a 5% provisioning requirement for existing and new project loans, commercial loans, and real estate loans—compared to the current regulatory requirement of 0.4%–1%. Banks have informed the RBI that they will need to absorb the impact of higher provisioning, which in turn will affect their profitability. 5. On May 18, amid an extreme heatwave, India’s peak electricity demand reached 229.6 GW—approaching the forecasted 235 GW. Last September’s peak stood at 243 GW, despite monsoon-season deficits. Maximum temperatures in affected regions reached 46°C, fueling high electricity demand. 6. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) is seeking to expand its staffing, potentially after the general elections, to better regulate both traditional and emerging economic sectors. The Fair Trade Commission is formulating a proposal to strengthen oversight and rigorously enforce the 2023-amended Competition Act, which significantly broadened its regulatory scope. A source added: “If the government enacts a new Digital Competition Act and assigns supervisory responsibilities to the CCI, it will bolster high-caliber human resources to enhance oversight of digital markets.” The emergence of complex domains such as digital technologies and new fields like artificial intelligence obligates regulators to possess sufficient personnel—both in quality and quantity—to ensure effective regulation. III. India’s Socioeconomic Landscape 1. Amid global market oversupply, Indian lab-grown diamond prices plummeted 45% in FY 2023–24. In April, India’s lab-grown diamond exports declined 18.2% to USD 83.77 million, as rising gold prices boosted demand and prompted consumers to opt for lab-grown diamonds to reduce jewelry costs. Global lab-grown diamond production reached 40 million carats in FY 2023–24—nearly 33% higher than in FY 2022–23. 2. Indian Oil Corporation reported a 13% rise in quarterly profit for March to INR 20.29 billion, driven by high oil prices. Operating income grew 2% year-on-year to INR 57.57 billion in Q4 FY 2023–24. Dividend and interest income more than doubled to INR 7.85 billion from INR 3.88 billion a year earlier. IOC noted that statutory compliance requirements caused full-year profit to decline 18% to INR 55.52 billion in FY 2023–24, down from INR 68.1 billion in FY 2022–23. Revenue fell 5% to INR 2,213 billion in FY 2023–24. 3. Siemens Digital Industries Software stated that India offers greater growth opportunities in sectors such as automotive, defense, and aerospace, and the company is keen to expand its operations in the country.

Oil India quarterly profit rises on higher crude realizations; elevated oil prices aid outlook

May 13, 2026

Oil India reported a 12.4% rise in fourth-quarter profit to 17.9 billion rupees, driven by higher crude oil realizations and steady production growth. Analysts anticipate continued earnings support from elevated global oil prices and tighter supplies.

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Oil India quarterly profit rises on higher crude realizations; elevated oil prices aid outlook

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