What is the Reuters poll's median forecast for the euro-to-dollar exchange rate over the next year, and how does it compare to the previous month's outlook?

The Reuters poll's median forecast shows the euro rising to $1.18 in three months, $1.19 in six months, and $1.20 in one year — unchanged from May's survey. This indicates persistent expectations of gradual dollar weakness despite recent war-driven inflation pressures and hawkish Fed signals.

Why do some FX strategists believe the dollar's current strength may be temporary, according to the Reuters poll?

Strategists like Kit Juckes of Societe Generale attribute expected dollar weakness to 'risk-on' markets, optimism that the Middle East conflict will end soon, expectations that U.S. monetary policy will not tighten significantly post-conflict (partly due to presidential pressure), and broader concerns about U.S. policymaking undermining global investor confidence in U.S. assets — all suggesting any near-term dollar strength is likely temporary.

Dollar bears cling to optimism as war-led inflation tests Fed path: Reuters poll

Jun 3, 2026

Reuters poll indicates the U.S. dollar may weaken later this year despite current strength driven by Middle East tensions, while surging Brent crude prices continue to fuel global inflation concerns and influence Federal Reserve policy.

reuters

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