Will Africa become a new global center for industrial manufacturing in the future?

For mid- and low-end industries, Africa is certain to become the next manufacturing hub after South Asia. In fact, Egypt and Morocco—both in North Africa—are already regional industrial centers. Egypt’s exports of ready-made garments and chemical products are growing rapidly, while Morocco’s annual automobile production has surpassed that of South Africa, reaching one million units per year—including nearly 500,000 passenger vehicles. On a per capita basis, this already matches China’s level in 2012. Of course, North Africa’s situation cannot represent Africa as a whole: its industrialization began earlier, and its overall development level far exceeds that of Sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, as Sub-Saharan African countries have gradually ended civil wars and achieved social stability, they now have the opportunity for peaceful development—and in this era of globalization, they are boarding the ‘last train’ of industrialization. For a comprehensive overview of industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa, please refer to my article titled “Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Here, I would like to introduce a major African business tycoon—through him, we can glimpse just how strong the momentum of Africa’s industrialization truly is. This person is Aliko Dangote, Nigeria’s richest man and a native of a northern Nigerian Muslim merchant family. Starting from trading cement, he built the vast Dangote Group industrial empire. Nigeria’s industrial foundation is weak, and essential industrial inputs required for industrialization are severely scarce. As a result, private capital has had no choice but to shoulder the task of industrialization. Though framed as a ‘task,’ it is equally an opportunity: the lack of domestic supply creates high profit margins in the local market. Dangote’s enterprise thus began with cement manufacturing; after achieving an annual output of several tens of millions of tons across West Africa, it moved into petroleum refining. Its Lagos refinery currently processes 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day—and expansion plans aim to raise capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the Dangote Group has launched a refinery project in Kenya (East Africa), with total investment reaching $15 billion and designed daily capacity of 700,000 barrels. Once both new projects are completed, the Group’s total daily refining capacity will reach 2.1 million barrels. Recall that China’s annual refining output in 1990 was only 100 million tons—equivalent to roughly 2 million barrels per day—comparable to Dangote Group’s post-expansion capacity. If we include other refineries operated by Sub-Saharan African enterprises, the region’s total refining capacity will approach China’s level around the year 2000. In addition, Dangote’s fertilizer plant investments are also massive: its current urea production capacity in Nigeria stands at 3 million tons annually, with expansion plans underway in Nigeria and Ethiopia targeting a combined annual output of 12 million tons—leaping forward to match China’s early-1990s level.

Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa

Tanzania is constructing the large-scale Julius Nyerere Hydropower Station, with a total installed capacity of 2,115 MW and an estimated annual electricity generation of 6.3 billion kWh. Dongfang Electric Corporation is responsible for both construction and supplying all equipment for the station [37]. Commercial operation is scheduled to begin in June 2025. In addition, Tanzania is building smaller-scale photovoltaic and natural gas power plants. Recognizing that electricity supply will become a major bottleneck as industrialization advances, the Tanzanian government has also initiated a nuclear energy program—though still in its infancy, with actual construction not expected before the 2030s. Nigeria is prioritizing photovoltaic and natural gas power generation. It has already signed agreements with Chinese enterprises for three projects: a 3 GW gas-fired power plant, a 4 GW integrated wind-solar-hydro power project, and additional hydropower facilities—bringing total installed capacity to 8 GW, equivalent to 2.4 times Nigeria’s current national electricity supply [38]. Among these, the Akwa Ibom Combined-Cycle Gas Power Plant has a total installed capacity of 3,000 MW and employs highly efficient gas-steam combined-cycle technology. Core generating equipment includes 12 Siemens SGT5-2000E gas turbines, 12 waste-heat boilers supplied by XiZi JieNeng, and 6 Siemens SST-600 steam turbines [39]. Upon completion, the plant is projected to generate 15–20 billion kWh annually. Like East African nations, Nigeria also has plans to develop nuclear energy. Other West African countries, such as Ghana, have already signed nuclear power plant contracts. Currently, five countries—Russia, France, China, the United States, and South Korea—all possess nuclear reactor export capabilities, resulting in intense competition that benefits African nations through more favorable financing and cost terms. Overall, within approximately ten years, per capita annual electricity consumption in West and East Africa is expected to reach over 500 kWh—exceeding 1,000 kWh in some countries—reaching levels comparable to China’s in the 1990s and India’s around 2010. 2. Petroleum Refining Infrastructure Gasoline is a critical energy source, accounting for roughly 30% of global primary energy consumption. Prior to the 2020s, although many Sub-Saharan African countries were oil producers, their petroleum refining capacity was virtually negligible—forcing them to import large quantities of refined gasoline and thereby depleting foreign exchange reserves. In 2024, the Dangote Group’s petroleum refinery commenced operations in Nigeria’s Lekki Free Trade Zone. This project involved extensive participation by Chinese companies—providing core equipment—but its design was jointly completed by the Dangote Group and an Indian firm. The facility’s designed capacity is 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, with annual production targets of 850,000 tons of polypropylene and 500,000 tons of polyethylene resin, representing a total investment exceeding $19 billion. As the world’s largest single-site refinery, its commissioning has ended Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported refined petroleum products—and fundamentally reshaped Africa’s energy landscape [40]. Currently, Dangote plans to expand the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day and increase annual polypropylene output from 1 million to 1.5 million tons [41]. Simultaneously, Dangote intends to build another refinery in East Africa, processing 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day to serve the entire East African market; the final location—Kenya or Tanzania—is still under consideration [42]. Once all these projects are completed, total daily crude oil processing capacity will reach 2.05 million barrels—equivalent to roughly 100 million tons annually—matching China’s 1990 level.

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