Why did oil prices remain little changed despite recent U.S.-Iran tensions and military exchanges?

Oil prices were little changed because traders held onto hopes for a successful U.S.-Iran peace outcome, which buoyed expectations for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; although the dealmaking process remains fragile and uncertainty is high after recent strikes, analysts noted that the memorandum of understanding is likely to hold due to poor incentives for either side to break it.

What concrete evidence in the news shows that oil supply is increasing through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran agreement?

Evidence includes resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as called for under the initial U.S.-Iranian deal, a 3.3 million bpd month-on-month rise in OPEC output in June per a Reuters survey, Kuwait’s oil production surging from 580,000 bpd in May to 1.65 million bpd in June, and at least five supertankers carrying 10 million barrels of Saudi oil leaving the strait—prompting Saudi Aramco to switch from longer-term contracts to spot pricing to accelerate sales in Asia.

Oil Prices Little Changed as US-Iran Peace Efforts Hold

Jul 2, 2026

Oil prices held steady this week on hopes of US-Iran peace deals, while OPEC output surged in June and Saudi Aramco adopted spot pricing. Increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have shifted market structure to contango.

reuters

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