Brazil overtakes Saudi Arabia to firmly hold second place in China's crude oil imports! China's crude oil import pattern shifts.

In September 2026, China imported 5.147 million tons of crude oil from Brazil, up 17.7% year-on-year. Brazil has held steady as China’s second-largest crude oil supplier for several consecutive months, accounting for 13.9% of total imports—while Saudi Arabia has slipped to fifth place, with only 7.3%. Just two years ago, such a ranking would have been unimaginable. A chokepoint in one strait is now reshuffling the global oil trade map. 01 Not 'a little more purchased'—but a rewritten hierarchy In the first nine months of the year, Brazil’s crude oil export revenue to China reached $21.8 billion, up 49% year-on-year; export volume rose 27%, with price increases contributing 16.8%. China purchased roughly half of Brazil’s total crude oil exports—nearly seven times more than India, its second-largest buyer. Viewed on a monthly basis, this shift becomes even clearer: In June, Brazil exported 4.212 million tons to China (14.4% share), while Saudi Arabia’s shipments plunged 56.7% to 3.42 million tons; by August, Brazil had edged ahead with a 9.9% share versus Saudi Arabia’s 8.3%. China’s top three crude suppliers shifted—from 'Russia–Saudi Arabia–Angola' to 'Russia–Brazil–Iraq'. 02 Pre-salt fields prop up the 'second pole' Brazil’s ability to absorb this surge isn’t due to temporary output hikes, but rather to a sustained, nearly two-decade-long release of production capacity. In 2025, Brazil’s average daily oil output stood at about 3.8 million barrels, of which pre-salt fields contributed approximately 3 million barrels—roughly 80% of national output. These pre-salt fields lie in deep- and ultra-deepwater areas off southeastern Brazil, some projects located around 300 km offshore, with total water-to-reservoir depths reaching up to 7,000 meters. Petrobras’ accumulated engineering expertise in ultra-deepwater operations forms the foundational support behind export growth. In 2026, Petrobras’ output is expected to exceed its annual target: as of August, its average daily production stood at about 2.6 million barrels—above the original plan of 2.5 million. Export logistics are also being upgraded: Brazil is accelerating a new round of port infrastructure investment to pave the way for expanded pre-salt exports over the next decade. Only an upward-shifting supply curve could create space for Chinese buyers to redirect orders from the Persian Gulf to South America. 03 Renminbi settlement: the quiet thread—not mere garnish The pivot in oil trade never happens solely aboard tankers.

Venezuela, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina: an emerging new petroleum export bloc.

There is no shortage of heavyweight buyers for any product Venezuela can export. India has signaled its willingness to consider purchasing oil from Venezuela—as an alternative to further increasing its U.S. oil imports. There is already precedent: before the U.S. intensified sanctions against Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro, India imported about 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude in 2019, with Reliance Industries serving as India’s primary buyer at the time. More recently, Indian Oil Corporation emphasized that it stands ready to receive Venezuelan crude and added that it is among the few domestic refineries capable of processing such heavy, high-sulfur crude. For years, a hallmark of U.S. diplomatic policy in the Middle East has been positioning India as the principal terminal buyer for oil from countries Washington targets for geopolitical reasons—including during Trump’s first term. Beyond acting as a key mediator among Arab states to amplify Washington’s influence over them, the U.S. has leveraged such transactions to encourage India to serve as a political, economic, and military counterweight to China across the Asia-Pacific. Just as Washington engages with Venezuela, so too does it anticipate benefits for Argentina under Javier Milei—the president Trump once called his 'favorite'—from continued U.S. investment in its oil and gas sector. In October 2025, the U.S. Treasury extended $20 billion in emergency assistance to Argentina, including currency swaps and direct purchases of Argentine bonds—measures explicitly designed to support Milei’s pro-market reforms and stabilize the economy to attract foreign investment. On February 4, 2026, the two countries signed the 'Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement', expediting U.S. investment in Argentina’s strategic sectors—including energy and critical minerals. As a result, multiple U.S. firms are ramping up oil and gas investment activities—especially in the Vaca Muerta shale formation, whose scale has earned it the moniker 'another Permian Basin'. Continental Resources recently acquired non-operating interests in four Vaca Muerta blocks to accelerate expansion, while Chevron has positioned Vaca Muerta as a core asset within its global portfolio. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes secured a major order in early 2026 to supply natural gas compression equipment for the San Martín pipeline, supporting gas transport from Vaca Muerta. Overall, Argentina’s daily oil output is projected to reach 1 million barrels in 2026—a 26% increase over 2025. It is safe to say that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva does not occupy as prominent a position on Trump’s Christmas card list as Argentina’s president—but Washington cannot ignore Brazil’s strategic importance as one of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) emerging-market powers, nor its rapidly growing oil output, nor its geographic location in America’s 'backyard'. To date, Brazil’s daily crude oil production has set a record of 4 million barrels; including natural gas, total hydrocarbon output recently hit a new high of 5.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Industry forecasts indicate that, backed by massive investment plans from both Petrobras and foreign oil companies, Brazil is likely to rank among the world’s top five oil producers by 2030.

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