Natural gas power generation may no longer be 'constrained by gas supply'

A set of data provided by the expert shows that in the first half of this year, China added approximately 4.89 million kW of new natural gas-fired power generation capacity nationwide; planned commissioning capacity for the second half exceeds 5 million kW, and total installed capacity is expected to reach 125 million kW by year-end. Moreover, the annual utilization hours of natural gas power generation are projected to rise year-on-year. 'In 2022, natural gas power generation utilization hours hit a new low since 2015; in the first half of 2023, they stood at 1,136 hours—a year-on-year increase of 46 hours. Considering the recovery of hydropower output in the second half, relatively ample coal-fired and wind-solar power supply, and a substantial year-on-year decline in international natural gas prices, natural gas power generation utilization hours are expected to rise further year-on-year.' The rapid development of natural gas power generation hinges on stable natural gas supply. 'Overall natural gas supply this year has been stable—not only has domestic reserve growth and production ramp-up yielded notable results, but also storage capacity at underground gas storage facilities continues to expand, ensuring overall supply security,' said Huang Qing, Chairman and Chief Information Officer of GasTank Info. On one hand, domestic supply security capability has steadily improved in recent years. Data show that upstream domestic enterprises have actively expanded reserves and boosted production; natural gas output for the full year is expected to reach 235.6 billion cubic meters, up 5.8% year-on-year. On the other hand, falling international gas prices have turned natural gas import growth from negative to positive: annual imports are forecast at 162.2 billion cubic meters, up 7.3% year-on-year. Specifically, pipeline gas imports—boosted by increased deliveries via the China-Russia East-Route pipeline—are projected to grow 7.9% to 68.1 billion cubic meters; LNG imports, having shifted from contraction to expansion, are expected to rise 6.8% to 94.1 billion cubic meters. 'Global market demand remains modest, while gas storage inventories sit at high levels—creating a slightly oversupplied market environment favorable for natural gas power generation,' Huang Qing noted. 'With domestic natural gas supply growth outpacing demand growth, and with particularly robust increases in storage capacity—alongside more abundant social reserves compared to last year—the dual safeguards of supply and storage ensure reliable gas delivery for most of this winter.' Economic competitiveness remains a challenge Per the 14th Five-Year Energy Plan, China’s future new-energy development will rely on large-scale wind and solar bases. As significantly larger volumes of renewable power connect to the grid, demand for flexible, dispatchable generating capacity will inevitably rise. Enhancing system flexibility is a critical requirement for building a new-type power system. Yet due to the strong volatility and randomness inherent in wind and solar resources, dispatchable backup generation will remain indispensable for the foreseeable future. Accordingly, many provinces and municipalities have stepped up their natural gas power generation deployment plans during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, aligning with evolving power-source structure requirements. Following severe summer drought-induced blackouts, Sichuan Province is accelerating natural gas power generation projects and pioneering reforms to introduce peak-shaving natural gas power tariffs. By 2025, Sichuan’s under-construction and operational natural gas power generation capacity is expected to exceed 10 million kW. As a leading province in natural gas power generation, Guangdong anticipates average annual electricity demand growth of 4.5–5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Its provincial 14th Five-Year Energy Plan explicitly calls for actively developing natural gas power generation, adding approximately 36 million kW of new natural gas-fired capacity. Under the 'Dual Carbon' goals, large-scale expansion of coal-fired power is constrained, while new-energy generation alone cannot yet shoulder primary responsibility. During this transitional phase toward green, low-carbon energy transformation, natural gas power generation’s bridging role may become increasingly prominent.

In-depth Interpretation Series of Provincial and Municipal 15th Five-Year Energy Plans (No. 8): Guangdong

At 13:41 on August 12, Guangdong Power Grid’s system load reached a new record high for the fifth time this year—180 million kW—making it the first provincial-level grid in China to surpass the 180-million-kW threshold. The day before, on August 11, the load had already set its fourth record high—175.7 million kW, up 6.53% year-on-year. On the same day, peak loads in Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou cities also hit all-time highs. In the short term, persistently high temperatures this year have rapidly driven up electricity demand. But viewed over the longer term, Guangdong’s total electricity consumption from January to July rose 7.67% year-on-year; electricity use by high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries grew 8.77%; internet data services saw over 50% year-on-year growth; and charging-and-swapping service electricity consumption surged over 40%. Guangdong’s electricity consumption structure is undergoing transformation: historically driven by manufacturing and residential demand, growth is now increasingly propelled by AI computing power, new-energy vehicles, and advanced manufacturing. Guangdong’s surging electricity demand signals a shift—from cyclical fluctuations to structural leapfrog advancement. All provincial and municipal 15th Five-Year Plan outlines across China have now been officially released. Today, we conduct an in-depth analysis of Guangdong—the nation’s top-performing economy. In 2025, Guangdong’s total societal electricity consumption will reach 959 billion kWh—accounting for 54% of the entire Southern Region and ranking first nationally. With a permanent resident population of 126 million and the highest GDP in China, Guangdong also holds the national record for peak load—180 million kW. Guangdong boasts the most comprehensive energy mix in the country. It is among the few provinces simultaneously deploying large-scale nuclear power, offshore wind power, natural gas power generation, west-to-east electricity transmission, and new-energy storage. The core of Guangdong’s 15th Five-Year Energy Plan can be summarized in five statements: (1) Dual clean-energy growth drivers—nuclear power and offshore wind; (2) Natural gas and coal power jointly securing supply reliability; (3) Electricity imports from outside Guangdong plus a 'super grid' dismantling inter-provincial barriers; (4) Energy storage, virtual power plants, and EV chargers reshaping the demand side; (5) Pioneering power market reform integrating green certificates and carbon markets. 01/ Clean Energy Growth: Nuclear Power + Offshore Wind Nuclear Power: 14 Projects—Nation’s Highest Count Guangdong’s 2026 key project plan includes 14 nuclear power projects—seven designated as key construction projects and seven as preparatory projects. No other province in China is advancing 14 nuclear projects concurrently. Meanwhile, on July 31, 2026, the State Council’s Executive Meeting approved four nuclear projects totaling eight units—including the third-phase development of the Taipingling plant—making it one of the first batch of nuclear projects approved under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Why is Guangdong moving so aggressively? Guangdong aims to build China’s largest nuclear power cluster. Four major bases—Taipingling, Lianjiang, Lufeng, and Taishan—are progressing in parallel, stretching along Guangdong’s coastline from Huizhou to Zhanjiang and from Shanwei to Jiangmen. • Note: At the national level, the target for total nuclear power installed capacity by 2030 stands at approximately 110 million kW. As China’s top nuclear power province, Guangdong—leveraging its four coastal bases in rolling development—will make nuclear power the province’s stable, low-carbon, baseload core power source. With annual utilization hours exceeding 7,700, nuclear power is currently the only large-scale, stable, clean, and low-carbon baseload alternative to coal power. Guangdong’s extensive coastline provides uniquely favorable conditions for nuclear power development. Offshore Wind Power: 31 Projects—National Leader As of end-July 2026, Guangdong’s cumulative installed offshore wind capacity reached 13.57 million kW—the highest in China.

Power Reforms in China's Guangdong Could Slow Gas Demand Growth, Wood Mackenzie Says

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Wood Mackenzie warns Guangdong's new economic dispatch rules will cut gas-fired plant hours and slow natural gas demand growth amid renewable expansion. Gas prices may need to drop sharply to compete with coal under the new framework.

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