A weakened United States has emboldened the Houthis to strike—Saudi Arabia is about to pay a heavy price.

A weakened United States has emboldened the Houthis to strike—Saudi Arabia is about to pay a heavy price. Recently, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—the Middle East’s most powerful '80s-born leader—has certainly been losing sleep. He deliberately provoked a celestial threat instead of dealing with earthly ones, picking a fight with the Houthi movement—and ended up getting soundly thrashed once again: disarmed, routed, and left scrambling for cover. Starting September 3, the highly energized Houthi forces launched a full-scale offensive across all fronts—with remarkable speed and substantial gains: first, they routed Yemen’s pro-Saudi ‘Royal Collaborator Army,’ sending them fleeing in panic; second, they seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; and third, they inflicted severe damage on Saudi Arabia’s nationwide oil infrastructure. How fierce was the Houthi offensive? They captured 2,600 square kilometers in a single day—and 5,400 square kilometers within two days, surpassing Russia’s entire year-long battlefield gains (4,300 sq km). To date, their newly controlled territory exceeds 7,000 square kilometers. Notably, all newly acquired areas lie along Yemen’s western coast—including the vital port of Mocha and Perim Island (also known as Mayun Island), which sits at the strategic chokepoint of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This effectively places the entire strait under Houthi control. This Mocha is the same Mocha (Muha on maps) that gave its name to Mocha coffee. From the 15th to the 17th centuries, the Port of Mocha served as the world’s largest coffee trading hub—Yemeni highland coffee beans were shipped from here to Europe and beyond. As seen on any map, the Port of Mocha holds extraordinary strategic importance. It is not only one of Yemen’s few deep-water ports but also the last major supply port for Yemen’s government forces along the Red Sea coast. Moreover, it commands the Red Sea shipping lane—lying just 60–70 kilometers from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Should Mocha fall—even a single 100,000-ton vessel would be unable to pass. Thus, Saudi Arabia heavily fortified the area, deploying what it believed to be an impregnable defense line. Yet the ‘Royal Collaborator Army’ remained what it always was: logistical support troops. When the sandal-clad Houthi fighters arrived, they simply surrendered and withdrew. The Houthis received massive amounts of free ‘deliveries’—including U.S.-made M-ATV mine-resistant vehicles, armed pickup trucks, communications equipment, and ammunition—which were swiftly integrated into their mobile units. They then rapidly advanced southward, reaching Perim Island (Mayun Island) inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and achieving full control over the strait. Perim Island lies near the eastern center of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, dividing it into eastern and western waterways. The eastern channel—only about 3.2 kilometers wide and roughly 30 meters deep—is the main shipping lane for large commercial vessels. Controlling this island equals controlling the entire strait. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait handles 12% of global trade volume and 30% of global container traffic. The Houthi takeover thus sent shockwaves worldwide. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are hit hardest—but so too are the United States and Israel, both staunch adversaries of the Houthis and active opponents of Iran. Egypt needs no elaboration: its economy lives off the Suez Canal tolls. Hence the saying, ‘People compare themselves—and die of envy’: Egypt earns money effortlessly by lying on its back, even more easily than adult film star Akiho Yoshizawa makes money. But with the Houthis’ move, that revenue instantly evaporated. Not even kneeling—not just lying down—can earn Egypt a cent now. And unlike other industries, the canal business has virtually no viable substitutes; prolonged disruption could trigger cascading problems, possibly even social unrest. Now consider Saudi Arabia. Losing control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is fatal for Saudi Arabia. As widely known, Saudi Arabia’s economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil—contributing over 60% of state fiscal revenue, and nearly all export earnings.

What exactly has Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman done?

Why did Mohammed bin Salman—who once used shredded pieces of Jamal Khashoggi as diplomatic messages—collapse at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? Prologue: That Night, No One Dared Turn Off the Lights at the Ritz-Carlton Late on the night of November 4, 2017, the lobby of Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton Hotel blazed with light. Hundreds of luxury cars streamed in one after another. Every passenger stepping out wore impeccably tailored white thobes, carried gold-plated pens, and stored half the Western world’s contact numbers in their phones. They were Saudi Arabia’s most powerful princes, ministers, and businessmen. None knew this was a banquet of betrayal. Once led into hotel rooms, they never emerged again. All external phone lines were severed. Crystal chandeliers illuminated row upon row of tightly shut doors. That night later became officially dubbed Saudi Arabia’s ‘anti-corruption campaign’—but within Riyadh’s royal circles, people used another term: ‘settling accounts.’ This event marked the beginning of everything that followed. Though nine years separate it from the Bab el-Mandeb crisis—and though dozens of intelligence dossiers and hundreds of lives lie between them—the truth remains: a crown prince who ascended without traditional legitimacy must prove two things, and fast. First, he must demonstrate his ability to command authority. Second, he must deliver tangible, visible results. In Saudi Arabia, the sole currency for both authority and results boils down to one thing: ensuring oil flows safely to market. With the Strait of Hormuz choked by Iran, losing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would empty Riyadh’s treasury. In September 2026, the Houthis seized Perim Island, gained full control over Yemen’s entire western coastline, and declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Brent crude futures surged from $78 to $94 per barrel within three trading days—a jump exceeding 20%. Simultaneously, Houthi missiles and drones relentlessly struck Saudi oil facilities and military bases. Saudi air defenses operated at maximum intensity for days on end—depleting interceptor missile stocks far faster than replenishment could keep pace. Reserves neared exhaustion within weeks. Desperate, Prince Mohammed bin Salman placed two emergency calls to Donald Trump in a single day—both rejected. Once news broke, online comment sections flooded with a single refrain: some blamed his youthful arrogance; others cited strategic miscalculation. But beneath both critiques lies the same core question: ‘He’s supposedly brilliant—so how could he fail so badly?’ That question itself is inverted. What truly demands scrutiny isn’t his intelligence—but the stability of his throne. When a crown prince’s legitimacy rests on inherently fragile foundations, how does that fragility reshape his decision-making logic? Every judgment he makes inevitably serves a more urgent imperative: proving—to domestic factions loyal to the old order and watching him with predatory eyes—that he deserves to sit on that throne. That need seeps like slow poison into his entire perception of the outside world. He sees every actor as testing his limits; every border as waiting for him to slip up. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran, 70% of Saudi energy exports were forced onto the Red Sea route—making the Bab el-Mandeb Strait no longer one of two options, but the sole lifeline. A crown prince who stakes all his political capital on foreign adventurism, then provokes the Houthis, essentially hands his only vital artery straight to their gun barrels. Thus, the loss of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait wasn’t the cause—it was merely the final, official stamp.

Saudi Crown Prince MBS Faces Houthi Threats Amidst Oil Infrastructure Attacks

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Houthi drone attacks have targeted Saudi refineries and pipelines, threatening oil exports and disrupting Aramco operations just before a major investor conference, raising concerns over global energy stability.

bloomberg

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Saudi Crown Prince MBS Faces Houthi Threats Amidst Oil Infrastructure Attacks

Saudi Crown Prince MBS Faces Houthi Threats Amidst Oil Infrastructure Attacks

FAQ