U.S. stock earnings report — BABA, March 19, 2026

- Taobao & Tmall: +1% (weak consumer demand + intense competition) - Cainiao & Quick Commerce: +56%, but capital-intensive (competition with Meituan) - Cloud: +36%; AI-related revenue has grown at triple-digit rates for 10 consecutive quarters — the sole bright spot - ¥380 billion three-year AI investment plan — China’s largest AI investment - $4.1 billion share buyback; $80 billion in cash provides downside support Rating: Maintain BUY | Target Price: $180 (down from $190) | +32% upside P/E of 14x is no longer cheap, yet accelerating cloud growth, $80 billion in cash, and SOTP valuation of $302 billion underpin the valuation. Key watchpoint: whether EBITA rebounds next quarter. Details: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA / HKEX: 9988) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis (Quarter ended December 2025) March 19, 2026 Rating: BUY — Maintained Share Price (as of March 18): $136.87 Target Price: $180 (reduced from $190 due to margin pressure) — +32% upside potential Market Cap: $31.7 billion | Cash: RMB 560 billion ($80 billion) Earnings Summary Q3 FY2026 Results: Missed Expectations — Revenue ~2% below consensus; Adjusted EBITA declined 57% year-on-year, driven by heavy investments in AI and instant retail. Metric Q3 FY2026 Q3 FY2025 YoY Change Consensus Beat/Miss Revenue (RMB billion) 28.48 28.02 +2% 29.07 Miss (-2%) Revenue (excl. divested businesses) — — +9% — — Adjusted EBITA (RMB billion) 23.4 54.8 -57% ~45.0 Miss (-48%) Net Income (RMB billion) 15.6 46.4 -66% ~35.0 Miss (-55%) Non-GAAP EPS ¥7.09 ¥21.39 -67% ~¥17.0 Miss (-58%) Free Cash Flow (RMB billion) 11.3 39.2 -71% ~30.0 Miss (-62%) Cloud Intelligence Revenue (RMB billion) 43.3 31.7 +36% ~40.0 Beat (+8%) Key Takeaways: ■ Revenue missed consensus by ~2%, but grew 9% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis excluding divested businesses (e.g., RT-Mart and Intime). Reported revenue of RMB 28.48 billion rose only 2% year-on-year, falling short of consensus of RMB 29.07 billion. Excluding divested businesses, however, like-for-like revenue grew 9%. The miss primarily reflects sluggish growth at core Taobao & Tmall (+1%), partially offset by strong growth in Cloud Intelligence (+36%) and Instant Retail (+56%). Amid weak domestic consumption recovery, e-commerce GMV trends remain subdued. ■ Profitability sharply declined — this is an 'investment quarter'. Adjusted EBITA fell 57% to RMB 23.4 billion (margin: 8.2% vs. 19.6% YoY).

Breaking news! CEO of IVD-listed company retires as firm goes private!

On April 6, Hologic filed an 8-K form disclosing that Stephen P. MacMillan, its Chairman, President, and CEO, will retire upon completion of the company’s privatization transaction. At first glance, this appears to be routine personnel news. Yet viewed against the current industry backdrop, its significance extends far beyond that. 01 This isn’t a resignation — it’s a ‘planned exit’ One critical point must be clarified upfront: This is not a conventional ‘CEO resignation’. MacMillan’s retirement is conditional — effective only upon completion of Hologic’s acquisition by Blackstone and TPG. In other words, there exists a complete logical chain: privatization → governance restructuring → management transition — a well-established pathway across the global medical device industry. When a company transitions from a publicly listed entity to a platform controlled by private equity, it requires a different type of leadership. Put simply: This isn’t departure — it’s mission accomplished. 02 Stable-looking financials conceal underlying cracks Looking back, Hologic’s Q1 FY2026 earnings already signaled early warning signs. On the surface, results appeared acceptable: revenue of $1.048 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year; Non-GAAP EPS up 1.0%. But digging deeper tells a very different story. Diagnostic business came under pressure: diagnostic revenue declined 1.3% year-on-year; molecular diagnostics revenue fell 3.5%. The reasons are straightforward: post-pandemic collapse in COVID-19 testing demand, compounded by softness in certain legacy diagnostic tests. This isn’t unique to Hologic — it’s an industry-wide challenge across the IVD sector. Yet more critically, another trend emerged: women’s health surgical business grew 8.7%, and breast health business grew 1.8%. What does this signify? Growth is shifting — from ‘diagnostics’ toward ‘therapeutics and intervention’. 03 The real change lies not in the numbers — but in the ‘operating logic’ If you focus solely on financial data, you might conclude this is merely a company transitioning from high growth to stable growth. But the truly pivotal shift involves something else entirely: the company is ceasing to operate according to capital-market logic. Within the earnings release, one sentence stands out: the company will no longer provide annual or quarterly earnings guidance. What does this mean? It means Hologic no longer needs to ‘explain itself to the market every quarter’. Once freed from this constraint, the company’s decision-making logic undergoes a fundamental transformation. 04 From Hologic to the inflection point of the entire IVD industry Zooming out, a broader trend emerges: what Hologic is experiencing is not an isolated case — it is a microcosm of the entire IVD industry.

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