The 'Negative Oil Price Event' shocked the world! Twelve traders made 4.6 billion yuan overnight—but their fate may be grim.

Subsequently, Mish International Monetary—a rare coin dealer that suffered massive losses due to the negative oil price event—filed a class-action lawsuit in the UK against 12 traders from Vega Capital London, accusing them of colluding to manipulate the oil market and violating antitrust laws. According to Airvers Tech News, these traders—aged between 20 and 50—profited over $700 million by aggressively dumping large volumes of WTI crude oil futures contracts amid the oil market collapse. They quickly gained notoriety as the 'Essex Boys'. The term 'Essex' has seemingly become synonymous with market manipulation. In our earlier article, 'Multiple Banks Fined Over $1.5 Billion for Foreign Exchange Manipulation; Trading Tactics Exposed—Details Rival Hollywood Plots!', we specifically introduced Essex—a small English town. Previous investigations by EU regulators found approximately 1,818 foreign exchange traders residing in Essex. Most knew each other personally. Though living in Essex, they commuted daily by train to work in London—and frequently used those train rides to 'conspire' or leak trading-related information. These traders formed chat groups; for instance, during the 2013 foreign exchange manipulation scandal, traders from major investment banks created a chat room named 'Forex-Essex Express'. Mish accused the defendants of purchasing special 'Trade-at-Settlement' (TAS) contracts—whose prices are tied to the day’s settlement value—and colluding to dump large volumes of standard WTI crude oil contracts just before expiry. According to Mish’s allegations, the traders’ activities exhibited extremely high correlation: 96.2% to 99.7% of their trades were aligned toward the same objective. Court documents also revealed that, in the final half-hour before market close, the British traders accounted for 29.2% of total WTI crude oil futures trading volume. Reports indicate they flooded the market using a so-called 'virtual lock-in' strategy, forcing WTI prices down to an all-time low. It is estimated they sold 153.5 contracts within that half-hour—representing roughly 29.2% of global market volume. The next day, WTI crude rebounded from minus $38 per barrel to around $10, netting the traders an enormous windfall of approximately $700 million. Court filings estimate profits of $633 million from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) options and $71.88 million from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) positions. Mish argued that these British traders violated antitrust law through market manipulation. As defendants, the 'Essex Boys' countered that they were independent traders merely acting on what was obvious at the time—and denied any collusion. Chat logs exposed: 'Don’t tell anyone what happened today.'

Will oil prices plunge to $74—or surge to $130? Global oil markets face an 'extreme choice' next year.

The global oil market stands at a critical crossroads. According to Wind Trader, Deutsche Bank’s latest research outlines two starkly divergent extreme scenarios for Brent crude oil prices in 2027: if Middle East tensions de-escalate toward peace talks, prices could fall to $74 per barrel; if hostilities persist and spread, prices could soar to $130. The gap between these two outcomes amounts to a full $56. This assessment comes from Michael Hsueh, Deutsche Bank’s energy analyst. He notes that ship attacks in the Middle East have surged to the highest level since the war began—reaching record highs in October—and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has confirmed that incident counts this month may double. Meanwhile, Brent crude has already climbed to approximately $110 per barrel—surpassing Deutsche Bank’s prior Q4 baseline scenario ($95) and even exceeding its adverse scenario forecast ($105). Markets’ acute sensitivity to geopolitical signals is already evident. Earlier reports indicated Qatar and Pakistan had proposed a plan potentially restarting Middle East ceasefire negotiations—prompting Brent crude to plunge $6 within hours. Yet when diplomats involved in the talks denied any progress toward agreement, oil prices swiftly recovered. A single piece of news triggered a $6 intraday swing—and Michael Hsueh estimates the entire negotiation process hangs over a potential $56 price differential. The Strait of Hormuz: The Key Variable for Supply Normalization Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is the pivotal variable determining global oil price direction. Deutsche Bank data shows that, supported by U.S. sanctions enforcement and transshipment logistics, Middle Eastern crude exports had previously remained near-normal levels—but since peaking at the end of September, outbound crude volumes have declined markedly. This pressure has directly spilled over into freight markets: VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates on the Arabian Gulf–Mediterranean route have doubled—from $16 to $32 per barrel. Michael Hsueh points out that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, the global oil market’s supply-demand balance would undergo a fundamental reversal: shifting from a projected deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026 to a surplus of 4.1 million barrels per day in 2027.

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